PODGORICA – Moscow position in the region has been seriously compromised by new intel of British and US sources that claim Kremlin was collaborating with Serbian nationals who had attempted to violently overthrow government in Montenegro, thus preventing it from joining NATO, writes political analyst Janus Bugajski from Washington DC, Pobjeda reports.
CdM reports that he said that “the attempted coup clearly demonstrated different goals the US and Russia have in the region”.
“Pence’s statements during his visits in Brussels and Munich confirm American obligation towards NATO, assuring Balkan it will not be left to Moscow”, Bugajski said.
In his analysis, Bugajski reveals that the US will have continuity on Balkans and maybe even become more of a support for the region, that had become a strategic test for Trump’s administration.
“Although is too early to be precise about US position in Balkans, international integration of the area is progressing. Trump could be more lenient with Serbia or Kosovo or BiH. Some believe Trump will step back from Balkan and let EU deal with it”, Bugajski said.
He reminded of controversial statements of US congressman Dana Rohrabacher, that speak of border changes on Balkan.
“Some assume Dana Rohrabacher could influence White House’s policies. Congressman claims that Serbia and Kosovo need to exchange territories and people, and that Macedonia should be divided between Bulgaria and Kosovo. Any kind of border changes could lead to serious conflicts in the region. Even NATO members Croatia, Albania, Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey could become a part of the regional war. So, Dana Rohrabacher is not taken so seriously”, Bugajski explains.
Despite Moscow and Belgrade hoping Trump would be their ally, his administration might have different plans for Serbia and Russia.
“There are early signifiers. US policy in Balkan is torn between Trump and Putin, and Montenegro is very close to joining NATO”, he said.
As far as Kosovo is concerned, it seems that US administration is ready to support its independence.
“American Secretary of Defense said that the US can support Kosovo in gathering armed forces that could take place of American soldiers there. Belgrade and Moscow were not happy with this idea. Some speculate Washington DC might ask Serbia to accept Kosovo independence”, Bugajski said.
According to him, Trump administration is carefully monitoring Moscow activity in the region.
“Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs was clear about his government looking for post-Western world order. Trump now has the opportunity to make the West stronger”, Bugajski concludes.