Originally published on BiEPAG blog
In the famous play by Samuel Beckett the two main characters Vladimir and Estragon engage in a variety of discussions, debates and moments circling around existential questions while waiting for Godot, who never comes. The Bosnian citizens have now been waiting for 24 years for the EU integration to bring some significant changes to her lives, and still, in 2024, they find themselves in the same situation like Vladimir and Estragon – simply waiting and losing hope that the EU will ever materialize for them unless they leave their country and emigrate to one of the EU member states.
Instead of the EU integration Godot, we get regular reports of the EU Commission on the candidate countries’ progress on their way towards EU membership. Bosnia and Herzegovina received the green light for the opening of negotiations in March 2024 once additional EU reform requirements are met. Among the most optimistic experts on Bosnia there was some hope that this green light, which clearly came as a political gift and a motivational step for local authorities to step up their work and start delivering, would change the dynamics of the country’s EU integration. But time and again, the Bosnian political reality has proven even the biggest optimists wrong.
The new report finds a technocratic but very blunt language to describe the standstill: “The reform dynamic stalled between April and October 2024, among political controversies and the political campaign for the October local election. Bosnia and Herzegovina has to continue taking resolute action to finalise reforms in line with the EU acquis and European standards, addressing all relevant steps.”
Looking in more detail into the major reform areas and 33 chapters is equally depressing. Bosnia and Herzegovina continues to be the least prepared candidate country for EU membership according to the reform progress. The wording is quite telling: EU Commission navigates between assessments like “no progress” and “between an early state of preparation and having some level of preparation”, “some level of preparation” and “some progress”. All things considered, we see that the preparation across the 33 chapters remains unchanged from 2023: there was “no progress” in 20 chapters, “limited progress” in 9, “good progress” in 3, and, as the Commission notes, “good progress” has been achieved only in two chapters.
But even a closer look into the dynamics within this chapter, which is focusing on foreign, security, and defense policy, reveals the fundamental problem, namely that authorities of the Republika Srpska allow and replicate Russian propaganda and disinformation narratives in the smaller BiH entity while at the same time maintaining close ties to Russia and Kremlin. It was just a few days ago that Vladimir Putin and Milorad Dodik met at the margins of the BRICS summit in Kazan and confirmed the close relationship between Republika Srpska and the Russian Federation.
The EU report is explicit in its criticism of the secessionist rhetoric coming from Republika Srpska and Milorad Dodik. It notes the fact that Republika Srpska continues not to recognize the rulings of the Constitutional Court and that it finds itself in breach of the constitutional and legal order by calling into question its authority and integrity. Yet, neither the EU nor the OHR in Bosnia or EU member states manage to find a strict and decisive stance towards Republika Srpska. Hungary explicitly continues to support Milorad Dodik and to prevent any harsher steps by other member states against Dodik and his clique.
In the end, the vicious circle of secessionist rhetoric, reform blockade and politics of threats, mixed with small steps of appeasement, reveals that there is no clear strategy of the West on how to deal with Milorad Dodik but also with BiH in general. Such a prolonged situation will keep haunting BiH for years to come, limiting the maneuvering space for any reforms within the state coalition and thus preventing the country from making any decisive steps towards EU membership.
The manner in which this vicious circle concretely hampers the daily development of the country and lives of citizens was recently at display concerning the EU’s new Growth Plan and is also noted in the EU report. BiH is still the only Western Balkan country that has not managed to agree on the internal Reform Agenda to be able to participate in the EU’s Growth Plan. Bosnia is set to receive a total of €1.085 billion in non-repayable grants and favorable loans when it meets the conditions it has committed to in its own Reform Agenda.
While the EU report uses a diplomatic language to say that BiH authorities remain engaged to fulfill the criteria, the truth is that the Reform Agenda has been delayed again due to the objections formulated by Republika Srpska – which I consider a continuation of the cat and mouse game between the Federation and Republika Srpska, i.e. the main coalition partners at the state level.
Yet, the Bosnian version of Waiting for Godot is not entirely depressing. Regardless of the EU’s technocratic assessments of the integration, as displayed in the newest report and as barely noticed by the citizens of the country, there are signs and displays of true European commitment and values by engaged citizens in Bosnia. When the latest massive floods hit Bosnia at the beginning of October, claiming the lives of several people in Jablanica, there was a huge wave of solidarity with the victims among Bosnians and Herzegovinians, regardless of their ethnic or national background. They all came together to help their fellow citizens and united around the opposition to the illegal quarry situated just above the houses in Donja Jablanica, which is where most of the deaths occurred. Brave activists such as Karton Revolucija continue fighting against environmental degradation and corruption, seeking justice and mobilizing hundreds of thousands people in Bosnia. Just a few months ago, when many activists rallied to protect the Una river, they managed to get the authorities to stop the plans for the construction of a hydropower plant on the river.
These are only some of the cases of citizens’ actions that truly stand for the best that Bosnia and Herzegovina has to offer. While the EU integration remains a very distant goal and the majority of citizens continue waiting for Godot, many others remain engaged and keep fighting and holding the ray of hope for a better future of Bosnia and Herzegovina.