Authors: Igor Novaković, Senior Associate at ISAC and Marko Savković, Senior Advisor at ISAC
After years of empty talk about how Serbia will finally make a strategic decision, thereby closing the space for further speculation regarding its foreign policy orientation, the United States is making a decision that will most directly affect it. The expected displacement of Gazprom from the ownership structure of the Serbian oil industry, as a consequence of the sanctions, means that the Russian state is left without the most concrete means of pressure on the authorities in Belgrade. In a very short period of time, which does not seem to leave enough time for an acquisition from a third party, two options open before the authorities, by which Serbia becomes the owner of the oil industry again – now profitable, modernized and market dominant. Direct takeover by nationalization is “out of the question” for now, but we’ll see. As of January 14, the Belgrade Stock Exchange has stopped trading in NIS shares.
