An analysis of 15 Telegram channels in Serbian and Russian published by the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) shows that the main narratives related to the war in Ukraine being promoted in the Balkans are that “Russia was left with no choice but to launch a military operation”, that Russians and the Russian language are oppressed in Ukraine and that Ukraine is ruled by the Nazis.
The channels analyzed in the publication “Russian Propaganda in Serbia and the Western Balkans: The Case of Telegram Channels” are a sample of a total of 38 Telegram channels active in the Balkans that are connected to the “troll factory” of the late leader of the Wagner paramilitary organization Yevgeny Prigozhin. Although Prigozhin died last year, his troll factory continues to work, according to the analysis.
The research was conducted from May to November 2023 in cooperation with the Oplot project, with the help of artificial intelligence
Among the Telegram channels that were analyzed are “Balkan Gossip Girl”, “O Serbia na Ruskom”, “REVOLT is our way” and “Crna Gora Srpska Sparta” (Montenegro Serbian Sparta). The author determined that the channels received an unnatural increase in followers at one point, around February 24, 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine began.
Analyzing the channel “Balkan Gossip Girl”, which has over 36 thousand followers, the research showed that the main narratives that are being spread are that Russians and the Russian language are oppressed in Ukraine, and that genocide is being committed against Russians. The next two most popular narratives are that “Russia was left with no choice but to launch a military operation” and that “If the United States can organise wars on foreign territories, then Russia can do it too.”
According to the research, these narratives can easily be found in the Kremlin-controlled Russian media.
“For example, the information agency Russian Business Consulting Publication quoted the following words of Vladimir Putin: ‘The goal, as I have said many times, is first to protect people, but above all, to protect Russia from the threats they are trying to create in our own historical adjacent territories”. He said this during a conversation with students, adding that “we cannot allow this to happen’”, the analysis says.
On the second analyzed channel, “Serbian Divergent”, in addition to the two narratives that are repeated in the previous one – about the oppression of Russians in Ukraine and the absence of a choice but to launch a military operation – there is also a dominant narrative about Ukraine ruled by Nazis, fascists or Banderites.
This narrative too is widely used in Russia and among Russian officials themselves, according to the analysis.
“For example, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov explained what was meant by the term ‘denazification of Ukraine’. His words were quoted by TASS: ‘And of course, denazification is an absolute must. And it includes not only cancelling the laws encouraging Nazi ideology and practices, but it also includes withdrawing any legislation which discriminates the Russian language and other national minority languages and in general national minority rights in Ukraine, which have been hugely discriminated and offended’”, the text states.
Other narratives appearing on these channels are that “The US/West/NATO is to blame for the war, which is waged to destroy Russia”, “Russia is at war with NATO/America/the West”, “Our president (Putin) is the best, he knows what he is doing/ everything is going according to the plan”, “Ukraine is an artificial country, not real”, “Those who criticise Russian troops are traitors”.
The study cites similarities between current Russian propaganda and Slobodan Milošević’s propaganda from the 1990s, namely pronounced ethnic nationalism, the spread of false information and manipulation, and the cult of personality.
“The narratives of modern Russian propaganda on Serbian Telegram channels fit 100% into the templates that are already familiar in Serbia. Therefore, they found fertile soil, where they received a response,” reads the analysis.
It is added that in Serbia, through the Telegram channel, Russia forms and strengthens the image of Western countries, the European Union and NATO as enemies.
When it comes to discrediting the EU, Russian propaganda often uses anti-Western rhetoric through which it highlights the differences between Russia and the EU, including criticism of Western values, policies, and actions, as well as the religious and cultural closeness of Russia and Serbia.
The analysis also states that Russia’s political opponents are being demonized in Serbia. Among them are Russians who oppose the war, who left Russia for Serbia after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, as well as Serbian politicians and activists who do not support the policies of Putin and Russia.
The advantage of Telegram for such actions is that there is no censorship, the analysis added. Completely incorrect and illegal information can be published without it being removed. This is one of the reasons why Telegram is used and not some other social networks.
In the fight against Russian propaganda, the author of the study suggests “monitoring and analysis of disinformation, counter-measures at the information level, but also “increasing society’s information literacy.”