fbpx
European Western Balkans
Analyses

US elections: What should the Western Balkans expect from the return of Donald Trump, and what from the victory of Kamala Harris?

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

The second presidential term of Donald Trump would be interpreted as “good news” by the nationalist politicians in the Western Balkans, who would see him as a powerful ally in the implementation of their political agendas. On the other hand, the election of Kamala Harris would imply a certain continuity with the policy of the current President Joseph Biden, as well as a chance to redefine Euro-Atlantic policy, our interlocutors say.

Analysts believe that, if the Republican nominee Trump wins the election, there is a possibility of the “revival” of the so-called Washington Agreement on the normalisation of economic relations between Belgrade and Pristina, signed in the autumn of 2020. In contrast, the victory of the Democratic nominee Harris could accelerate the EU-Atlantic integration processes in the region. Still, it is yet to be seen what her foreign policy priorities are, since she has not yet specified her key points in this domain.

The candidacies of Harris and Trump were officially confirmed at the Democratic and Republican national conventions and the race is expected to be tight. Trump was leading in the polls before the withdrawal of Biden, who decided not to seek re-election last month under pressure from allies due to age-related concerns. The latest polls give Harris a small advantage.

The interlocutors of EWB agree that the former Special Envoy of Donald Trump for the Belgrade- Pristina Dialogue, Richard Grenell, would have an important role in the creation and implementation of Washington’s policy towards the Western Balkans if Trump succeeds in getting a new term. Grenell is considered to be a fierce Trump loyalist, and he was also the US Ambassador in Berlin. It is speculated that he could become the next US Secretary of State if the Republican nominee wins the election.

Kurt Bassuener: Trump’s victory would boost secessionist agendas, while Harris could accelerate the Euro-Atlantic path of the region

Speaking about the effect of Trump’s re-election in the Western Balkans, Kurt Bassuener, a Senior Associate of the Berlin-based Democratization Policy Council, states for European Western Balkans that the partitionist agendas would gain momentum.

“Trump is the sort of politician that is very familiar here in the Balkans – including his mixing of the personal and family business with his elected office. So, he plugs right into the “big man” politics prevalent in the region. The business deals his son-in-law Jared Kushner and daughter Ivanka have engaged in Belgrade and off Vlora in Albania recently demonstrate that”, he assesses.

Bassuener recalls that, during Trump’s administration, the US actively engaged in support of the “land swap”, that is “adjustment of the administrative line”, or “border correction”, commonly noted as the partition of Kosovo.

“This concept was proposed by Serbian President Vučić and then-President of Kosovo Thaçi in 2018, which was also backed by EU foreign policy chief (Federica) Mogherini’s office, but not with the agreement of many member states. Richard Grenell was a pointman for much of this – and is still frequently prominent in the region. His post-Trump presidency engagement demonstrates that there is no real line between the way he and Trump view policy and their own agendas. And recall Grenell in particular, as well as other Trump envoys, went out of their way to generate frictions with and within Europe. Add to that the openly reactionary, nationalist element which he also has in common with many in the Balkan leaderships, as well as those EU member states in the neighborhood – Hungary’s Viktor Orbán in particular”, he stresses.

Doland Trump; Photo: Wikipedia

Kurt Bassuener adds that the “traditional values, proclaimed by, though self-evidently not practiced by Trump, are a common talking point”.

“All these elements lead me to conclude that while his decisions cannot be predicted, his posture and attitude are a known quantity. And were he to be elected in November, thanks to Project 2025 and other efforts, there would be a far greater focus on ensuring there were personnel to pursue whatever agendas (or whims) he had – or that they came to their positions with. So, there is a good reason that the likes of Aleksandar Vučić, Milorad Dodik, Dragan Čović, and other reactionaries are expectantly waiting in the hope that their own agendas will have even freer latitude if not outright support”, Bassuener underlines.

Meanwhile, he believes that if Kamala Harris wins the presidential election, there will be a certain amount of continuity in the US foreign policy, as well as a possible acceleration of the EU and NATO path of the Western Balkans countries.

“With Harris, one starts at a presumption of a certain amount of continuity. Her National Security Advisor Philip Gordon was Assistant Secretary for Europe in the first term of the Obama administration, but that could soon change once she has a greater chance to define herself. So, this is much more speculative than trying to foresee Trump’s policy posture”, he clarifies.

Bassuener believes that, however, there are several causes for hope for the people, including himself, dissatisfied with the Biden administration policies.

“First, she is a high-level former prosecutor – and the political elite/business/organized crime nexus prevalent throughout the region is one that she would be able to recognize. There can be no real progress until there is a transatlantic commitment to directly confront this, rather than collaborate with and attempt to manage it”, he stresses.

Bassuener remarks that Harris would be new in the executive role, but European allies would breathe a sigh of relief if she were elected. She would then have the ability to help define an agenda that will still be being set on this side of the Atlantic, with the construction of the European Commission.

He believes that in such a case there would be “a real chance to revisit the central premise of Western engagement in the Western Balkans since 1999, further formalised at Thessaloniki” – that the potential of joining the EU would impel entrenched elites in the region to do the heavy lifting.

“We have almost two decades of evidence (from vantage point Sarajevo) that this, as currently configured, is not working. So, the methods, not the goals – need a thorough rethink. Harris would be positioned to make that assertion to her counterparts”, Bassuener concludes.

Vuk Vuksanović: If Grenell and Trump return to power, there will be a re-invocation of the Washington Agreement

Similarly, Vuk Vuksanović, a Senior Researcher at the Belgrade Center for Security Policy, tells EWB that Trump’s election victory would help conservative forces in the Western Balkans.

“If Trump wins, there will be a strengthening of those political forces that lean towards this new conservative nationalism and who feel anger at the economic, political and cultural consequences of liberalism in the form practiced over the last thirty to forty years. In this case, Trump will be seen as some kind of inspiration. The Trump administration would potentially be an attractive partner for the Western Balkan countries due to growing disillusionment with the EU. This has already been seen during Trump’s first term when Skopje and many other Balkan capitals, disappointed in the EU, accepted that the United States would embrace them, especially in the security domain”, Vuk Vuksanović says.

According to Vuksanović, when it comes to the Trump administration, it is of greater importance whether Richard Grenell will be in the next administration, especially if he becomes the Secretary of State.

“For Grenell himself, the Serbia and Kosovo dispute is particularly important. In his public statements, he referred to his work on the issue in the last term, which indicates that he sees it as a way to promote himself. In the event that Grenell and Trump return, there will be a re-invocation of the Washington Agreement. If we look at the economic blockades that the Kurti government is conducting against the Serb community in Kosovo, the economic provisions of this agreement may even be useful, and the issue of protecting Serbian religious and cultural heritage may be interesting for the Trump government as it fits with the Christian preferences of his evangelist voters”, Vuksanović remarks.

The Washington Agreement was signed in 2020 by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and then Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti at the White House, in the presence of Donald Trump. Most of the points from the Agreement have not been implemented.

The signing of the Washington Agreement, September 2020; Photo: Office of the President of Serbia

Vuksanović adds that in the case of Trump’s new term, “the Vučić government would use its old contacts with Grenell, the agreement on the sale of the old building of the General Staff of the Serbian Armed Forces in Belgrade to Jared Kushner, and ties with Israel and the Israel lobby groups to build a stronger relationship with the Trump administration and try to get a better deal related to Kosovo”.

“In this case, an important factor will also be the open, personal animosity that Grenell expresses towards Kurti. Of course, many things would depend on how successful the Trump administration would be in countering old bureaucratic structures that would advocate continuity with previous policies”, our interlocutor notes.

Vuksanović adds that the Democratic nominee has yet to define what she stands for when it comes to foreign policy.

“In the case of the victory of Kamala Harris, the problem is that this is a person who has not expressed notable foreign policy views in her political career, nor is there any indication that she has any extensive knowledge in this domain. In this case, there would be some continuity with the Biden administration where there would be rhetorical talk of support for the Euro-Atlantic, democratic future of the region. In practice, however, the three dominant topics would be: Kosovo – although this issue would still be influenced by the fact that Kurti is the first Kosovo-Albanian leader not supported by Washington – lithium, and countering the influence of Russia and China. In such a context, monitoring the state of democracy and the rule of law in the Balkans is a secondary issue, and if Trump wins, he will be even less concerned about the internal development of the Balkan countries”, Vuksanović says.

Franz-Lothar Altmann: Harris will be skeptical of Vučić and alikes, Trump is not in favour of the EU enlargement

Speaking on the same topics, Franz-Lothar Altmann, an independent German academic and Professor of International Relations at the University of Bucharest, stresses for EWB that we still do not know about the foreign policy inclinations of Kamala Harris, but that she certainly would not look favourably on the blooming of the nationalism in this region.

“Harris will be a transatlantic politician, like Biden. In contrast to Trump, she is very clearly negatively inclined towards Putin, but also towards his friends, in particular in autocratic systems. A clear anti-Putin position will also mean that she will be more sceptical about Vučić and the former appeasement behaviour of Ambassador Grenell, who certainly will have to leave Balkan politics if she wins. Harris will continue or even increase support to Ukraine”, Franz-Lothar Altmann says.

Altmann adds that it is unknown what Harris thinks about the situation in the Balkans, for instance, about “Dodik’s constant disturbing and destabilizing moves and Belgrade’s Serbian World voices”.

“Maybe she will exert more pressure on Belgrade to finally recognise the independent status of Kosovo, but first she will be engaged in Middle East politics. In the long run, coming from California, her orientation will be similar to former President Obama, which also includes the long-term economic and political rivalry with China, but not at the cost of worsening relations with Europe”, he says.

Kamala Harris; Photo: Wikipedia

Altmann says that if Trump succeeds in returning to the office in the White House, then people like Richard Grenell “will continue to perform anti-European politics and the Balkans might remain second rank in Trump’s preferences”.

“’America first’ will guide his foreign politics. He might be willing to force Ukraine to forget about the Russian-occupied provinces in East Ukraine just so he no longer has a European problem on his agenda. When it comes to Serbia, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, his knowledge about the serious problems and the respective constellations is very limited, so it might be decisive which people in his staff will influence him with whatever opinions and alleged insights. He claims that he’s interested in quick results not reflecting long-term effects”, Altmann notes.

Altmann stresses that if we believe in what Trump is pronouncing, then his engagement in Europe and in particular in the Balkans “might shrink substantially, including pulling off American troops, offering Moscow an open gate to increase its influence in southeast Europe supported by politicians like Orbán, Fico and Vučić”.

He concludes that “since Trump is not at all interested in enlarging and strengthening the European Union, this might be even seen by himself as positive”.

Different views on Biden’s political legacy

Some of our interlocutors have different views on the political legacy of Joseph Biden in the Western Balkans. While Kurt Bassuener claims that “it was a tremendous disappointment”, Franz-Lothar Almann says that, contrary to Trump, Biden had a good attitude.

“The prevailing policy, both from Washington and Brussels and most member state capitals, are based on the conclusion that the Balkans are endemically tribal – so they can only be managed. The Biden administration had a chance to confront this, but did not. Instead, there was greater continuity on the ground than many of us had hoped, though at least the partition idea was shelved. But what developed was a Serbia/Vučić-based regional policy, with managerial efforts throughout the rest of the region”, Bassuener says.

Joseph Biden; Photo: Wikipedia Commons

On the other hand, Altmann considers that “President Biden was very positive concerning the transatlantic relations, which also includes attention to what is happening in the Balkans”.

In June 2024, Biden extended for another year the Executive Order on the emergency situation for the Balkans, because, as he claims, the situation in the region continues to pose a threat to the US national security and foreign policy. The White House reported that “the actions of persons threatening the peace and international stabilization efforts in the Western Balkans, including acts of extremist violence and obstructionist activity, and the situation in the Western Balkans, which stymies progress toward effective and democratic governance and full integration into transatlantic institutions, continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States”.

During his presidency, Biden twice organised the Summit for Democracy, which also included leaders from the region, including the President of Serbia. Also, he often pointed out that it is necessary to counter the “malign influence of Russia” in the Western Balkans.

Related posts

How much are Western Balkan countries aligning with the EU foreign policy?

Vukašin Živković

Balkan Migration Route: Ongoing Story

EWB Archives

Hashtag YouthWB

EWB Archives