BERLIN – Germany should use its influence in Brussels to support a tougher approach by the European Commission. In Belgrade, it should help limit President Aleksandar Vučić’s escalatory trajectory and work toward domestic political dialogue, thus saving Serbia’s EU perspective, reads a memo released by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).
The memo emphasises that, on October 29, the European Commission is scheduled to present its annual progress report on Serbia’s accession path. A few days later, on November 1, major rallies are expected across the country to mark the first anniversary of the tragic construction disaster that triggered persistent nationwide protests.
“Both dates present inflection points in this crisis that deserves far more political attention in Berlin and other EU capitals than it has gotten so far”, the memo states.
“The Vučić administration is now testing the reactions of its EU partners – and the loyalty of its own police commanders – before it moves ahead with a larger, more ambitious and heavy-handed crackdown on the protests. We argue that EU leaders, particularly the new German government, need to take recent signals from Belgrade much more seriously and deter the Serbian president from proceeding with a more heavy-handed crackdown and violence”, the memo states.
So far, the experts asses, Vučić has operated on the assumption that the protest movement will eventually burn out and lose public support, but this time, public discontent runs much deeper.
“President Vučić’s cardinal problem is that he can neither solve Serbia’s underlying problems nor offer genuine political concessions. His political future and personal security are intricately and directly linked to the future of the system he created”, the memo states.
If the ruling party now goes even further toward a full-scale reversal of democratic standards – essentially the “Erdoganization” of Serbia – this would effectively strangle the EU accession of a small integrated economy that is dependent on EU trade and capital, the experts assess.
“Moreover, such a move has the potential to turn Belgrade into a spoiler of EU enlargement for the whole fragile region, playing into the hands of Russia”, they write.
Instead of relying on President Vučić’s “crisis management” in the region and autocratic resilience at home, the EU and Germany must better understand his limits and vulnerabilities, the memo states. They need to prepare for a more unpredictable and restless Serbia under his (remaining) rule by making political freedoms the foundation for advancing its EU accession.
The new German government, according to the report, should intensify its internal discussions within the EU Council with like-minded Nordic countries, Austria, and Slovenia to obtain a strict but fair annual country report on Serbia, doubling down on rule of law and fundamentals.
The government should also, according to the memo, support the European Commission in accelerating accession with those Western Balkan candidates that are reforming, as well as making a visit to Belgrade by Federal Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul during his upcoming trip to the region dependent on the de-escalation of the domestic situation in Serbia.
