This article was originally published in Serbian at Savremena politika.
While for some countries EU membership is just one of the options, for others it is an existential interest and a guarantee for security and independence. Similarly, while some governments are happy to play back and forth with the EU just to create the illusion of progress, others are taking their commitment to European integration rather seriously.
Republic of Moldova under President Maia Sandu is an example of a country fighting for its existential interests and survival through pushing for EU integration.
Compared to most other EU candidate countries, Moldova entered the accession process relatively recently, in 2022. Nevertheless, its official aim is to be ready to sign the accession treaty with the EU by 2028, the year the second and final term of the incumbent President Maia Sandu ends. The treaty would then need to be ratified by Member States, so that Moldova could become an EU Member State by 2030.
The goal is ambitious – some would say too ambitious – but it reflects the current internal and geopolitical constellation of Moldova following the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine.
Invasion of Ukraine created threats and opportunities
Before the war, Moldova – once a part of the Soviet Union – oscillated between pro-Western and pro-Russian foreign policy, internally divided by ethnicity and language. It is easy to draw parallels with the situation in Ukraine before – and after – the war. In the case of both countries, it was the start of the invasion in 2022 that decisively pushed them in the direction of the European Union, primarily for security reasons.
“For Moldova, European integration is not merely a foreign-policy choice – it is an existential necessity. We need the European Union’s border and security space to extend to Moldova because, if Russia were ever to regain control over our country, the Moldovan state as we know it could cease to exist. Our historical experience leaves us with no illusions about what living under Russian domination means”, says Rodica Secrieru, legal expert on the European Union, for Savremena politika.
The pro-EU side of Moldova now has a clear majority in the public opinion, even though there are still those who remain opposed. Recent surveys put the support for EU membership at around 58% and opposition to it at around 22%, with the rest of the population undecided. The ethnic complexity of the country, which includes the breakaway region of Transnistria and the autonomous and highly pro-Russian region of Gagauzia, as well as the legacy of the Soviet Union which extended into the Russian influence in the society, makes the widest possible consensus hard to reach.
This was especially evident during the 2024 referendum on formally inscribing the goal of EU membership into the constitution, which was held simultaneously with the presidential election. It passed with the narrowest of margins, amid intense efforts by Russia to influence the vote.
Nevertheless, the referendum passed, and Maia Sandu was elected to her second term that year. Her party also managed to win the parliamentary election the following year, in what was seen as an improved resilience of the country’s institutions to Russian interference attempts.
Sandu’s tenure is one of the rare occasions in Moldova’s post-independence history which a single party holds the presidency and the parliamentary majority. And the first time that this happens under pro-European forces.
These domestic developments, together with an increased readiness of the European Union to at least accelerate the accession talks with multiple candidate countries, have created a unique window of opportunity for Moldova, a phrase that is often heard from government officials. Unlike some other candidate countries, Moldova seems to be genuinely committed to leap at this opportunity.
Strong reform track record
After becoming an EU candidate, Moldova and Ukraine had to endure several years of veto of Viktor Orban’s Hungary, which has prevented them from moving forward until Orban lost power in this year’s election. Since then, the two countries have made the first formal steps towards EU membership, opening two clusters with the EU in recent months.
In the meantime, Moldova has been increasing its level of preparedness for membership. Admittedly, it has started from a lower level compared to many Western Balkan candidates, but it is closing the gap fast.
According to the 2025 European Commission enlargement reports, Moldova has achieved good progress in almost 20 out of 33 chapters, more than any other candidate country. The government is also implementing the reforms under EU’s Growth Plan for Moldova more diligently than its Western Balkan counterparts, which are also in the framework of a specially designated Growth Plan.
For Rodica Secrieru, the government’s greatest achievement since 2022 has been the genuine political commitment it has brought to European integration and its ability to turn what had long seemed impossible into a credible process.
“The greatest challenge is now domestic delivery: reforms and legislative approximation are moving at extraordinary speed, but implementation capacity remains limited, while very high expectations create a serious risk of disappointment if results do not follow”, Secrieru warns.
A recent scandal involving the state-owned air-navigation company has illustrated that there are still problems regarding the functioning of state institutions and the fight against corruption. Company’s director was accused of putting false information in his CV and an employee, a cousin of President Sandu, was accused of being paid a disproportionally large salary for her position. Sandu publicly distanced herself and apparently had nothing to do with the hiring.
According to the 2025 report by the European Commission, Moldova has made progress in reforming the justice sector and fighting corruption, but more work needs to be done. Moldova should “continue proactive and efficient anti-corruption investigations leading to a positive track record” and “further strengthen the independence, integrity and operational capacity of prosecution services”.
These recommendations may seem familiar to other aspiring EU candidate countries. What distinguishes Modlova – at least for now – is the readiness to deliver.
It is currently going through a process of judicial vetting – something similar took place in Albania – which has in turn created a certain backlog in the justice system. Some pro-EU reforms have also led to the increase in fuel prices, and there is a general feeling that citizens are yet to feel all the benefits of pro-EU reforms.
The process is not without obstacles
These problems, coupled with the Russian propaganda that has adapted to the circumstances and, in many cases, is not outrightly against Moldova’s EU membership but questions many of its aspects, makes the foundations of Moldova’s pro-EU direction shaky.
While Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos and other officials are doing their best to maintain EU’s engagement with Moldova on a high level, the current indecisiveness in the Union about the overall future of enlargement may risk the progress made by Moldova in recent years.
Several interlocutors confirmed to Savremena politika that Moldova would be opened to transitional phases and temporary restrictions as a new EU member state, as long as the accession treaty is signed in the foreseeable future.
The debate in the EU on how to integrate prospective member states is expected to return this Autumn, which is also the timeframe in which President Sandu expects the country to make further steps forward.
She has a good reason to hurry – the window of opportunity that has opened following Orban’s loss of power in Hungary could close or at least get narrower after the elections in France in the spring of 2027.
And while the “Plan B” for Moldova – unification with Romania – is constantly hanging in the air, it is not seriously considered at the moment and has less support than the prospect of the EU membership.
Transnistria: What makes it different from Serbia and Kosovo?
While some are comparing the situation with Moldova and its breakaway region of Transnistria with the situation of Serbia and Kosovo, the crucial difference is that virtually nobody has recognized the independence of Transnistria, putting the government in Chișinău in different position compared to Belgrade. Following the conflict in the early 1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the central government has had no control over the region, currently populated by around 350,000 people. Savremena politika interlocutors point out that the EU is expecting a reintegration plan from the government, though it is currently unclear how this would pan out. On the other hand, the issue does not seem to be a major stumbling block in the EU-Moldova negotiations for now.
