The citizens of the United States of America are voting today in a presidential election which is simultaneously described as one of the most unpredictable and one of the most important in recent history. Observers are expecting significantly different policies in a potential first Kamala Harris administration and a potential second administration of Donald Trump.
The policy towards the Western Balkans has, as expected, not featured in the campaign, but the media and the commentators have attempted to predict the positions of both administrations.
The Macedonian-language edition of Voice of America reached out to both campaigns, asking them what their policy would be for North Macedonia and the Western Balkans.
In their response, Harris’ campaign spokesperson stated that the current Vice President is fully committed to advancing the Euro-Atlantic aspirations of the six countries of the Western Balkans.
“Vice President Harris has consistently advocated for the advancement of democracy, the rule of law and the fight against corruption. Corruption is a key national security interest of the United States”, the statement reads.
The campaign spokesperson of the Democratic nominee also said for the Macedonian outlet that Kamala Harris believes in the values of respecting the rights of citizens and countries to freely express their national identity, including the Macedonian identity – and to speak their national language, including the Macedonian language.
Meanwhile, Christos Marafatsos, Vice Chairman of the National Diversity Coalition (NDC) for President Trump, said for Voice of America that the foreign policy of the Biden administration in the Balkans has been marked by inaction, empty promises, and a lack of commitment to truly understanding the unique challenges of the region.
“Instead of implementing significant economic and growth initiatives in the Balkan countries, support these nations in their fight against corruption and EU integration, the Biden administration opted for a passive approach. This lack of engagement has not only hindered economic progress but has left many Balkan states feeling neglected and undervalued as tensions simmer without adequate intervention,” said Christos Marafatsos.
He said Trump’s foreign policy toward the Western Balkans will focus on trade partnerships and economic opportunities, as well as strategic economic agreements.
“A Trump-led White House will not simply push broad statements about democracy. It will bring real, accountable results by working directly with local leaders and people in the region”, Marafatsos said for the Voice of America.
What do experts believe?
Commentators who spoke for our article published in August said that the second presidential term of Donald Trump would be interpreted as “good news” by the nationalist politicians in the Western Balkans, who would see him as a powerful ally in the implementation of their political agendas.
Analysts believe that, if Trump wins the election, there is a possibility of the “revival” of the so-called Washington Agreement on the normalisation of economic relations between Belgrade and Pristina, signed in the autumn of 2020.
The interlocutors of EWB also agreed that the former Special Envoy of Donald Trump for the Belgrade- Pristina Dialogue, Richard Grenell, would have an important role in the creation and implementation of Washington’s policy towards the Western Balkans if Trump succeeds in getting a new term.
In contrast, the victory of Kamala Harris could accelerate the EU-Atlantic integration processes in the region and would represent a certain continuity with the policy of the current President Joseph Biden. Still, it is yet to be seen what her foreign policy priorities are, since she has not yet specified her key points in this domain.
Last week, the European Council on Foreign Relations published a policy brief by Adnan Ćerimagić, Senior Analyst for the Western Balkans at the European Stability Initiative (ESI) and Majda Ruge, Senior Policy Fellow, which concluded that the “fragile status-quo (in the Balkans) would come under significant threat from a new Trump presidency in the US”.
“Among other risks, his second administration may seek to reverse sanctions that have constrained separatist appetites among Bosnian Serbs and to revive dangerous proposals for a Serbia-Kosovo land swap. Peace in the region is at stake”, Ćerimagić and Ruge wrote in the policy brief.
They recommended that, in case of the Trump victory, the EU should prepare a package of new deterrence mechanisms that it can apply in the Western Balkans independently from the US and spoiler member states like Hungary.
Some commentators, meanwhile, emphasised the relative lack of importance of the Western Balkan region for the United States.
Dejan Jović, Professor at the University of Zagreb and member of the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG), stressed in a statement for Deutsche Welle that Donald Trump is now not a novelty, which was the case in 2016.
“Hopes in great changes that some may have had in Serbia and Republika Srpska did not materialize. Nothing dramatic happened in the region during Trump’s first term. Nor did the United States withdraw its recognition of Kosovo’s independence, or anything similar”, Jović said.
He added that there also has not been a dramatic change in the opposite direction since Joe Biden took over, pointing out that the current US Ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill has a quite benevolent relationship towards the Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.
Stevan Nedeljković from the Center for the Studies of the United States of America at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade also told Deutsche Welle that, as long as there is peace in the Balkans, the region will not be particularly interesting to anybody in the White House and will be left to the Europeans.
Nedeljković also drew attention to several business deals made recently by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner in both Serbia and Albania. He believes that they would raise expectations in Belgrade and Tirana from the US administration in case of the victory of Donald Trump.
“Honestly, such business instruments for realizing political or national interests are not new either in our region or in American politics,” he added.