Even though the parliamentary elections in Kosovo were held on 9 February, the final results have not been announced yet due to the complaints submitted to the Election Panel for Appeals and Petitions. According to the current results, Vetëvendosje (VV), led by Albin Kurti, won 42% of the vote and 48 seats. While it secured a comfortable first-place finish, Kurti’s party scored a weaker result than in 2021, when it won 50% and 58 seats.
The interlocutors of European Western Balkans state that it is still uncertain whether Kurti will remain at the helm of the government, since the leading opposition parties have so far ruled out the possibility of joining forces with VV.
Forming a government in Kosovo requires more than 60 seats in the 120-member parliament, 10 of which are reserved for the Serb community and 10 for other ethnic minorities.
The opposition Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) won 21% of the votes and 24 seats, followed by the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), which was supported by 18% of the voters and received 20 seats. The Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK)-NISMA coalition secured more than 7% of the votes and 8 seats.
The Serb List, directly supported by Serbian officials, won 4% of the vote and 9 out of 10 seats reserved for the Serb minority. Nenad Rašić’s Party for Freedom, Justice and Survival won the remaining seat. Rašić is a Minister in the caretaker government led by Albin Kurti.
According to interlocutors of EWB, there are several options for the formation of the new government, including a deal between VV and Nisma, led by Fatmir Limaj, and the possibility that the opposition parties join forces to oust Kurti from power.
Also, there is a serious risk of the prolonged political crisis and instability in case there is no agreement on the government, which would make Kosovo incapable of tackling the key tasks, such as the continuation of the Brussels Dialogue, making progress on the EU path, and maintaining the crucial relationship with the US, now led by Donald Trump’s administration.
Donika Emini: There are four potential scenarios
Donika Emini, an Executive Director of CiviKos Platform and a member of the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG), says for our portal that “Kosovo’s political landscape is set for a significant shift as the country moves beyond the four-year dominance of Vetëvendosje”.
“While Albin Kurti’s party once again secured victory in the elections, the results make one thing clear: Vetëvendosje can no longer govern alone. The return to coalition politics – long a defining feature of Kosovo’s multiparty system – raises crucial questions about the stability of the next government”, Donika Emini remarks.
In her opinion, there are several potential scenarios in Kosovo following the elections, including: a majority government, a minority government, an “all-against Kurti” coalition, and the risk of a prolonged political crisis.
“One widely discussed scenario was a potential coalition between Vetëvendosje and the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), the country’s second-largest party. Such an alliance would provide the necessary 61 votes to form a government and even the 80 votes required for next year’s presidential election. However, political realities make this coalition increasingly unlikely. Without a partnership between Vetëvendosje and either the second or third-largest party, Kosovo risks forming a fragile government – one vulnerable to constant political maneuvering, particularly when it comes to securing votes for crucial international agreements”, Emini underlines.
When it comes to the second “scenario”, Emini states that a minority government would be “a short-term gamble”.
“Another possibility is a minority government, where Vetëvendosje aligns with smaller parties, such as NISMA, whose leader Fatmir Limaj has openly expressed willingness to join forces. In such a scenario, Vetëvendosje could also seek to secure votes from individual MPs across different parties. However, a government of this nature would be highly unstable, constantly at risk of collapse”, she clarifies.
Donika Emini stresses that the biggest challenge would come next year when Kosovo must elect a new president – requiring 80 parliamentary votes, a threshold a minority government would struggle to reach.
“If the numbers fall short, Kosovo could once again be forced into early elections”, she clarifies.
Speaking about an “All-Against Kurti Coalition”, Emini underlines that it would be “a more dramatic alternative”.
“A more dramatic alternative would see opposition parties uniting to form an “all-against-Vetëvendosje” government, effectively sidelining Kurti’s party. However, such a government would be inherently weak, held together more by opposition to Vetëvendosje than by a shared political vision”, Donika Emini underlines.
According to Emini, “ironically, this scenario could benefit Kurti in the long run – allowing him to frame the political deadlock as a failure of the opposition and push for fresh elections, potentially strengthening his position”.
Finally, Emini warns about the risk of a prolonged political crisis, or the so-called “Bulgarian scenario”.
“Perhaps the most concerning scenario is a prolonged political deadlock until the election of the president, similar to Bulgaria’s recent struggles. Kosovo has previously endured extended periods without a functioning government, with the longest-lasting six months”, she notes.
She claims that this time, however, “the crisis could be even more severe, with serious implications for domestic governance and foreign policy”.
“Key international agreements could stall, and Kosovo’s democratic trajectory could face significant challenges”, Emini explains.
In Emini’s opinion, “as coalition talks unfold, Kosovo stands at a crossroads – whether political leaders can navigate this uncertainty or push the country into deeper instability remains to be seen.”.
“The coming weeks will determine Kosovo’s political future, and whether its democratic institutions can withstand the turbulence ahead”, Donika Emini claims.
Adelina Hasani: The most likely scenario is a government led by opposition parties
According to Adelina Hasani, a researcher at Kosovar Centre for Security Studies, the most likely scenario is a government led by opposition parties with the involvement of ethnic minority representatives.
“The announcement of the final results of Kosovo’s national elections took longer than in previous elections. The Self-Determination (Vetëvendosje – VV) party secured the highest share of votes, guaranteeing them 48 seats in parliament. However, this is not enough to form a government independently, making a coalition necessary. Potential coalition partners include the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), and the AAK-NISMA coalition. However, forming a government remains highly challenging, as all major opposition parties have ruled out a coalition with VV”, Adelina Hasani says for EWB.
Hasani underlines that “deep ideological divisions and longstanding political rivalries further diminish the likelihood of any coalition”.
“Moreover, VV’s identity as an anti-establishment party – built on accusations of corruption against its opponents – makes any alliance with the opposition inherently unstable. However, with rapid geopolitical shifts and growing security concerns, Kosovo’s political landscape may face significant challenges”, she notes.
Hasani underlines that, amid these uncertainties, there are increasing calls for political parties to collaborate to navigate the evolving situation.
“Given the difficulty of forming a government under these conditions, the most likely scenario is a government led by opposition parties with the involvement of ethnic minority representatives”, Hasani notes.
Aleksandar Šljuka: The cooperation of Kosovo’s Albanian parties with the Serb List is politically undesirable
Aleksandar Šljuka, a researcher at the Mitrovica-based “New Social Initiative”, states for EWB that it is still difficult to predict who will form the new government of Kosovo.
“At first, it had appeared that the votes from diaspora could significantly change the dynamics in favor of ruling VV, but this did not happen. Even now, neither of the two options – the ruling party, or the bloc of opposition parties – has enough MPs to form a majority in the parliament. When it comes to the potential support of minority MPs, even if VVV were to be supported by the all-non Serb minority parties, as well as by the party led by Nenad Rašić, it would still not be enough to form a majority”, Aleksandar Šljuka clarifies.
He stresses that the rumour has it that the necessary support could be provided by Fatmir Limaj’s NISMA, which has so far been an opposition party, “but this remains in the realm of speculation”.
Aleksandar Šljuka underlines that, mathematically speaking, the opposition could form a majority, but there is a significant obstacle – the vote of minority parties is not unison.
“MPs are unlikely to be willing to support the government formed by the current opposition parties. An additional problem is that the cooperation of Albanian parties with the Serb List is politically undesirable, which significantly reduces not only the coalition potential of the Serb List, but also the options for the politicians who aspire to form the new government. Having all this in mind, it is possible that no one would be able to form a government, which could lead to new elections”, he remarks.
In Šljuka’s opinion, the formation of a government is very challenging at the moment, and even if it happens, “the next problem will be the stability of such a government, since it would operate with a slim majority”.
“There is a high probability that the government could be toppled as early as during the election of a new president of Kosovo, which means that the key challenge will be how to bridge the gap period. On the other hand, if the opposition succeeds in forming a government, there would be little time for a substantive change”, he stresses.
Potential tensions with the new US administration
Our interlocutors agree that the next government of Kosovo will be faced with numerous challenges, including the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue, and the relations with Donald Trump’s administration.
According to Donika Emini, “the most immediate challenge will be addressing the EU’s restrictive measures, which, combined with the suspension of US foreign aid, have placed significant political and economic strain on the country”.
“Foreign policy remained largely sidelined during Kosovo’s election campaign, leaving many parties ambiguous about their plans, not just regarding international relations but also on critical issues like the stalled dialogue with Serbia. Rebuilding ties with Brussels and key EU member states must be a top priority if Kosovo hopes to lift these sanctions and restore its footing in European diplomacy, an effort that, at best, would only bring the country back to square one”, Donika Emini says.
Emini adds that Kosovo’s long-term ambition for EU membership remains uncertain.
“The government must make a concerted push to advance its candidate status, persuading Brussels and hesitant member states to respond to Kosovo’s 2022 application. Without clear diplomatic engagement, this goal risks being indefinitely stalled”, Emini warns.
Similarly, Adelina Hasani states that one of the most significant challenges for the new government will be “the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue and the formation of the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities (ASM), which the EU and the US have set as a key condition for advancing negotiations”.
“The geopolitical landscape is also shifting with the return of the Trump administration… Growing global uncertainties have made Kosovo’s security landscape more fragile, increasing the need for a stable government capable of building political consensus to navigate these challenges”, Adelina Hasani notes.
In Hasani’s opinion, if Kurti’s party forms the government, “it is likely to face tensions with the new US administration.” This is especially true given the role of Richard Grenell, Trump’s envoy for special missions and former envoy for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, who has openly labeled Kurti as anti-Western.
Aleksandar Šljuka also assesses that the Vetëvendosje-led government would have a more favorable position domestically, but would face challenges in relations with the new administration in Washington, which is not favorable to it.
“This could lead to pressure to redefine domestic politics, especially towards the Serb community and dialogue with Belgrade – which was the backbone of Kurti’s policy in his previous term”, Šljuka says.