SARAJEVO – The Western Balkans region is almost at the same distance from the EU as it was 10 years ago. There are different reasons, but the most important one is that the autocrats took the lack of interest of the EU in integrating the region as a justification for not implementing reforms, and the citizens embraced apathy as a reaction to the indolence of the “catch-22 situation”, says Jovana Marović, former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of European Affairs of the Government of Montenegro, and a member of BiEPAG.
Speaking for European Western Balkans in Sarajevo on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG), Jovana Marović stresses that “we expected that at least one country would join the EU in a ten-year period”.
“In 2014, when BiEPAG was established, it was said that there would be no enlargement in a five-year period, but we thought that then something big must come in the next five years. Also, the length of the negotiations of the previous EU candidate states gave us the right to hope. If it happens that no country joins the EU in the next 10 years, then the meaning of the existence of the EU’s enlargement policy itself will be called into question”, Jovana Marović underlines.
Commenting on the possibility that Montenegro becomes the 28th EU member state by 2028, Marović says that Montenegro is the only candidate country in the final stage of the accession talks (as it received a positive Interim Benchmark Assessment Report in June) and the only one with clear dynamics of joining the EU – with the roadmap approved by EC which entails all negotiating chapters to be closed by the end of 2026.
“Montenegro is an ideal candidate for EU membership since it is a small country, a NATO member, fully aligned with the Common and Security Policy of the Union. However, it also has non-Western actors’ proxies in the Government – a pro-Russian political coalition, and the rule of law is still at a low level. Therefore, Montenegro is more vulnerable to foreign influences, and EU’s position that it ‘should be stronger in order to be bigger’ does not help either”, our interlocutor remarks.
According to Jovana Marović, the merit-based system is not decisive – “the European Commission gave the green light to Montenegro’s roadmap, but still each EU member state could block the accession, even if Montenegro meets the conditions”.
“The EU is still focused on the economy, with the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, and the reconstruction of Ukraine, which so far has not brought either more democracy or more security to the countries aspiring to the membership. Finally, the inconsistent EU policy encourages states that are cooperating closely with of non-Western actors to destabilize the entire region”, Marović claims.
Jovana Marović thinks that the EU has to develop a political plan, which should go hand in hand with the Growth Plan, “as well as to establish clear milestones for all countries”.
“Also, it should be consistent in sanctioning non-democratic practices inside and outside and work on its own democratization in parallel. Most importantly for us, the EU should publicly emphasize that Montenegro has a road map, and that the entry scenario in 2028 is possible in order to build a consensus on all issues in our society step by step. So, the scenario of us becoming an EU member in 2028 is possible, but it implies that the EU should be honest, as well as that Montenegro has no right to make a mistake. By that date, apart from the reforms, we must push pro-Russian parties out of the Government”, Marović concludes.