BELGRADE – Speaking at the first panel of the Belgrade Security Conference 2024, which was opened today, former High Representative of the EU Federica Mogherini assessed that one of the effects of the Trump administration coming into power will hopefully be that there will be one or two new member states, if not more, joining the Union.
Mogherini, now the rector of the College of Europe, added that more investment in security in Europe will also be a product of Donald Trump’s return to power.
She paraphrased Jean Monnet, saying that the EU needs to be on the edge of a disaster to be able to act fast and united.
Mogherini added that, when the perception of the magnitude of the challenge is shared among EU leaders, the decisions are being made fast. She cited a united front the EU made following Brexit and during the COVID pandemic as examples of this.
“There is no country in Europe that is big enough to negotiate with Trump alone. This is why, even if Trump is for bilateral approaches, they need to be united for that negotiating table as well”, Mogherini said.
Meanwhile, Thomas Gomart, Director of Institut français des relations internationales, said that the expectation in Europe is that the re-election of Donald Trump will create a lot of “little Trumps” everywhere. He assessed that there are challenges in making Europe “Trump-proof”.
“There is a lack of political leadership in Europe right now. The political situation in France is not easy, to say the least. The same can be said for Germany. There is a sort of vacuum to an extent” Gomart said.
Also speaking at the opening panel, titled “The World after the U.S. and EU Elections”, Thomas Countryman, Board Chairman of Arms Control Association, said that this was an existential moment for European security.
“EU and European members of NATO must make decisions in the coming days on how to support Ukraine and how much money they are willing to spend on American weapons for Ukraine. To fail to do that is putting Kyiv in a position where it has no cards to play”, Countryman said.
Wojciech Przybylski, Editor-in-chief of Visegrad Insight, said that, from the perspective of Poland, there is a fear of isolationism both from the US and parts of Europe.
He said that the upcoming Polish presidency of the Council of the European Union, which will take place in the first half of next year, will be “all about security”, including border and defence spending.
“But I think the key element here is not policies alone, it is politics and public opinion across Europe. Politicians need public opinion standing behind them. To keep the focus not on the war but on winning peace, that will be the key challenge to maintain any sensible policy strategy that would be not costing any politician election loss. And that will need to come with a sense of a new deal, a new social contract for Europe”, Przybylski said.