The document signed by the ministers of defence of Serbia and Hungary on 1 April in Belgrade is a “standard defence cooperation plan”, but it does not represent a “military alliance”, the interlocutors of EWB say. In addition, the highest-level signing ceremony, attended by President Aleksandar Vučić, is interpreted as the response by the official Belgrade to the joint declaration of cooperation on defence, signed by Albania, Croatia and Kosovo on 18 March in Tirana.
Days before the signing ceremony took place, a vast majority of the pro-government tabloids in Serbia stated that “Serbia and Hungary are going to forge a mighty military alliance which would shake up the region”, adding that it would be “a historical decision by Vučić and the Hungarian Prime Minister (Viktor) Orbán”.
On the other side, the Ministry of Defence of Serbia stated that after a meeting held with the President of Serbia in attendance, ministers Bratislav Gašić and Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky signed a document on “operationalising and concretising the Agreement on Strategic Defence Cooperation”.
According to President Vučić, “the largest number of activities, as many as 79, has been agreed for this year, which is almost twice as many as in 2023, when 48 activities were implemented”.
Minister Szalay-Bobrovniczky noted that the cooperation between the two countries was successful and emphasised the importance of defence cooperation. However, he did not mention the possibility of the creation of a military alliance between the two countries.
“Our neighbouring country, Serbia, is not in the EU, but we have consultations at the highest level. In 2023, we expanded our cooperation to include the military sector as well, and today, we went through the entire plan for 2025 in detail”, he said.
Ivana Ranković: It is unlikely that Serbian officials would dismiss the military neutrality
Ivana Ranković, a Researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, says for EWB that the document signed by the defence ministers of Serbia and Hungary represents “a concretization and operationalisation of the Strategic Defence Cooperation Agreement reached in 2023”.
“According to official statements, the document foresees 79 joint activities for this year, including joint military exercises, trainings, military-technical cooperation in arms procurement, etc., making this document a standard defence cooperation plan. Therefore, it cannot be interpreted as the beginning of the formation of a military alliance between Serbia and Hungary. Although the President of Serbia has expressed a desire for further steps toward creating a military alliance, this is unlikely to ever materialize for several reasons”, Ivana Ranković notes.
She clarifies that “first, Hungary is a NATO member, while Serbia is not, nor does it intend to become one, as defined in the 2019 National Security Strategy”.
“Hungary’s obligations as a NATO member take precedence over any bilateral cooperation, and Serbia already maintains a developed form of cooperation with NATO through participation in the ‘Partnership for Peace’ programme, which represents a framework for practical bilateral cooperation between NATO as a whole and individual states”, she states.
Ranković adds that Serbia adopted a policy of military neutrality back in 2007.
“According to the 2019 Defence Strategy, military neutrality is ‘a defence interest of the Republic of Serbia’ through which Serbia expresses its commitment ‘not to join military-political alliances, which does not exclude cooperation in the field of defence.’ Accordingly, even if some sort of military alliance were to be created in the future, it would contradict Serbia’s official policy of military neutrality, which further reduces the likelihood of such a move”, she underlines.
Ranković remarks that although military neutrality in Serbia is often understood as a balancing act between NATO and Russia, rather than a strategic interest, “it is unlikely that Serbian officials would dismiss it”.
“However, the main problem remains that decisions on defence policy are made without broader public debate and without the involvement of other state institutions. This lack of transparency allows officials to use the concept of military neutrality according to their current interests and the broader context”, she says.
A reaction to the Declaration of Croatia, Albania and Kosovo
Ranković stresses that the announcement of a potential military alliance between Hungary and Serbia by the President of Serbia comes shortly after the defence ministers of Croatia, Albania, and Kosovo signed a declaration on military cooperation.
“Therefore, this announcement can be interpreted as a sort of response to that declaration and as a message to the domestic public that Serbia is not under threat from ‘hostile’ neighbours. The signing of the document and the concretisation of Serbia-Hungary defence cooperation is not surprising, given the scope of cooperation in other areas that the current governments in Belgrade and Budapest have nurtured for years”, she notes.
Ranković explains that this cooperation includes control of migration routes, cooperation in energy security, and infrastructure projects.
“Thus, the announcement of strategic cooperation and the potential start of a military alliance can only be perceived as a logical continuation and consolidation of two authoritarian governments currently facing numerous internal and external challenges”, Ivana Ranković concludes.
Marko Savković: The “political closeness” between Belgrade and Budapest led to the strengthening of defence ties
Speaking about the document signed by the Serbian and Hungarian ministers of Defence, Marko Savković, a Senior Advisor at International and Security Affairs Centre (ISAC Fund), states for EWB that “first of all, we have not seen the document, but know about it only what President Vučić said in his presentation”.
“It was stated by ministries of defence of Serbia and Hungary that the number of joint activities would increase from 43 to 79. A large number of areas of cooperation are covered, so this is an ambitious document”, Marko Savković says.
Savković agrees that the document does not imply the creation of “a military alliance” between the two countries, since “there is no mention of the clause on mutual assistance, i.e. defense”.
“I do not think that it can be interpreted as a ‘military alliance with a NATO member country’, either. First of all, it is not a military alliance, and, second, Hungary has long been an ‘outlier’ in the Alliance”, he remarks.
In Savković’s opinion, it is clear that the “political closeness” between Belgrade and Budapest led to the strengthening of the ties in the domain of defence.
“Budapest is Belgrade’s ally in Brussels, and the ties in the domain of defence would not have been strengthening to such an extent if there had not been political rapprochement before. Also, the signing of the document would have certainly been made a public event, but it now carries a lot of weight as a ‘response’ by the official Belgrade to the declaration signed by Croatia, Albania and Pristina. It also serves to demonstrate to the public that Belgrade is not isolated and that ‘it knows what to do in the context of relations in the region’ which are bad”, he stressed.
Elaborating on the military cooperation between Serbia and Hungary, Savković says that Serbia purchased a fleet of BTR armored infantry fighting vehicles from Hungary and that the acquisition followed Hungary’s decision to phase out these Soviet-made vehicles.
“If I am not mistaken, Serbia also has bought spare parts for MiG-29 fighters from Hungary, which is very important in the context of the sanctions imposed on Russia, since our country does not have such equipment”, he says.
Finally, Savković adds that the members of the Serbian Armed Forces have been in the peacekeeping mission in Cyprus as part of the Hungarian contingent.
“Therefore, there is an extensive cooperation between the Hungarian and Serbian ruling regimes, which are close both ideologically and politically”, he concludes.