The decision by the Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to attend the Victory Parade in Moscow will complicate his relationship with the EU, as it has already been indicated by the official Brussels, the interlocutors of EWB say. It is believed that Vučić’s visit is mainly prompted by his aspiration to boost the image of the “Russian ally”, amidst the widespread protests in Serbia, particularly after his recent attempt to meet the US President Donald Trump failed.
Prior to the trip to Russia, the President of Serbia had travelled to Florida, but cut short the visit and returned to Serbia on 3 May. According to the official information, he did so after feeling sudden chest pain apparently caused by high blood pressure. However, some opposition politicians and critical voices in Serbia claimed that he decided to go back to his home country when it became obvious that he would not meet Donald Trump during his visit to Florida, despite the fact that the meetings had been announced in advance by the pro-government media.
Upon arrival in Moscow on 7 May, Vučić said that he was not afraid of the possible punishment from the EU for accepting the invitation from his Russian counterpart.
“I know that criticism from Brussels will follow, and I expect the EU to punish me, not Serbia… I was elected by the Serbian people… I was not elected in Riga, Tallinn, Vilnius, or anywhere else”, he noted.
Nevertheless, he expressed confidence, speaking about the EU, that Serbia will stay on the European path.
According to Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Vučić’s visit to Moscow for the May 9 parade does not go unnoticed by the European Union member states.
“The Serbian army did not participate in the parade, and that is a positive side. That would have been really another level. But, of course, it remains on the conscience of these people who go hand in hand with Putin, who is waging a war now, the biggest war in Europe since World War II”, Kallas said.
Asked about the EU’s reaction to such a move by the Serbian President, she underlined that the member states “have a lot of questions”, such as “who is your friend that you are dealing with”.
Marko Savković: As the political crisis in Serbia deepens, Vučić seeks sources of legitimacy abroad
Speaking about Vučić’s latest trip to the Russian Federation, Marko Savković, a Senior Advisor in the International and Security Affairs Centre (ISAC Fund), notes for EWB that he uses foreign policy as a tool to navigate internal politics, and that “it has always been that way”.
“As the crisis in our country deepens and prolongs, Vučić seeks sources of legitimacy (political support) outside of it. For this purpose, he first travelled to the United States, but not only did such an attempt fail, but there are many open questions that we will seemingly be dealing with for a long time. With Russia, things are different: President Vučić has so far avoided gestures of extreme favour with Moscow, especially since the outbreak of war in Ukraine”, Marko Savković stresses.
Savković adds that the public in Serbia is aware of the contribution of the Serbian defence industry to the arming and defence of Ukraine.
“There is also an open problem of sanctions against Gazprom, which has not been solved yet. But obviously, such a situation, where, at the same time, Serbia does not join the sanctions imposed by the EU on Russia, is acceptable to Moscow. It is interesting, after all, that Vučić himself says that Serbia has interests in Russia, which he has to protect”, he underlines.
In Savković’s opinion, it is quite possible that Vučić was advised by the EU not to travel to Moscow, since the members of the current European Commission and Parliament have no understanding for the fact that he maintains close relations with Russia.
“However, he went to Moscow and was one of a few European leaders who attended the military parade at the Red Square. The representatives of the EU publicly communicate their dissatisfaction (criticism) to the political representatives of Serbia, and I expect that the critically intoned resolutions, such as the recent report by Tonino Picula, will be approved by the EU”, Marko Savković says.
According to Savković, if the Serbian army had taken part in the parade in Moscow, the political part (meetings and consultation) of the process of the EU integration of Serbia would have been “frozen” or suspended.
Vuk Vuksanović: It is difficult to say what the ruling regime’s relationship with the EU will look like
Similarly, Vuk Vuksanović, a Senior Researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, states for European Western Balkans, that Vučić’s visit to Moscow is mainly motivated by the internal politics.
“In the past six months, the entire Serbian foreign policy has been paralysed by protests in Serbia, and, thus, the whole foreign policy is reduced solely to improving the image of Aleksandar Vučić, in order to ‘sell it’ to his voters, as well as to ensure that no major international player turns his back on him and becomes a problem, in order to give himself a free space to deal with internal problems”, Vuk Vuksanović clarifies.
Vuksanović claims that the invitation to visit Moscow “had to be used as an opportunity for internal promotion, after a trip to the United States and a meeting with Donald Trump turned out to be a failed improvisation”.
“The fact that the Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was present at the parade in Moscow certainly had an impact on Vučić’s logic, since he will inform Brussels that Brussels should first deal with the EU member states, and then with the candidate countries. It would have been even easier for Vučić if Trump and the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had decided to attend the parade. Vučić’s thinking is that, while he has a good relationship with Washington and Moscow, Brussels is of secondary importance”, Vuksanović remarks.
Vuk Vuksanović stresses that it is difficult to say what the ruling regime’s relationship with the EU will look like.
“Parts of the population in Serbia were disappointed with the attitude that the EU showed towards the protests, while Marta Kos was one of the few from the EU circles that was more energetic on this issue, and the fact that the EU did not open Cluster 3 made it impossible for Vučić to ‘tick a box’ in the EU accession process, and to use it for the internal political advertisement. However, for Vučić, the issue of the EU membership has not been important for a long time, since neither he nor his ‘clique’ is interested in the membership, nor do they believe that the scenario of Serbia becoming an EU member state is realistic”, Vuksanović explains.
In Vuksanović’s opinion, if the EU were to decide that Serbia could not become a member state, it would not be a punishment for the government in Belgrade.
“The only thing that worries the ruling establishment is investments, a visa-free regime and that the EU would try to undermine it with economic instruments, since the EU is the main economic partner. Nevertheless, it is necessary to see whether things will go in this direction, since the key decision will still be made by the key member states, such as France and Germany, and there have been instances of EU sharpening its tone towards the government in Belgrade, but then quickly changing the attitude due to some current interest”, he remarks.
According to Vuksanović, “much will depend on what Vučić’s fate in Serbia itself will be, since neither Brussels nor other European capitals will invest in Vučić if they see that he is on a downward trajectory within the country”.