While the latest general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina featured innovative safeguards, such as biometric voter identification and electronic ballot scanner, aimed at curbing fraud, the fact that the nationalist political forces – the Party of Democratic Action of BiH (SDA) in the Federation, and the Alliance of the Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) in Republika Srpska, either maintained their ground or strengthened their positions raise renewed concerns about the deep-seated internal instability, political observers note.
In addition, it remains uncertain whether a new government would be able to meet the criteria to unblock the country’s EU path.
“New technologies and the application of them in the general elections in BiH are definitely the biggest winner in the democratization of the electoral process. However, it is only a small screw in the subject political culture, when it comes to the citizen participation, as well as free and fair elections. This election ended far earlier than on the election day, and were marked by the undisguised misuse of public resources, illegal spending of the budget, as well as by blackmail of employees in public institutions and administration”, Tanja Topić, analyst and Head of Friedrich Ebert Foundation Office in Banja Luka states.
According to Adi Ćerimagić, a senior analyst for the Western Balkans at the European Stability Initiative (ESI), “the biggest winner and the biggest loser of Sunday’s elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina were both off the ballot”.
“The winner was Milorad Dodik, a former leader of Republika Srpska. The loser was the European Union. For the first time in decades, the EU was largely absent from the campaign. It was no longer a card to win votes with. For Dodik, it had become a punching bag to rally support against”, Ćerimagić remarks.
“A big comeback for SDA, Dodik got what he wanted”
In the latest general elections turnout plummeted to approximately 42% marking a significant drop compared to the 2022 general elections where turnout stood at roughly 51.5%.
According to the preliminary results, SDA is leading the race for the House of Representatives of the Federation of BiH, with approximately largest single political force in the entity parliament, leading with approximately 30.58% of the vote. The Social Democratic Party (SDP) followed solidly as part of the ruling multi-party alignment (“Troika”) pulling in roughly 15.39%, while the HDZ BiH-led coalition captured around 13.61%.
On the other hand, parties like the Democratic Front (DF) and the liberal Our Party experienced marked contractions, with the DF seeing its federal mandates halved and Our Party suffering losses in both popular vote share and parliamentary seats.
Denis Bećirović, a candidate of the Social Democratic Party of BiH, regained the position of Bosniak member of the Presidency of BiH, while Bakir Izetbegović, leader of SDA, came second. In the race for the member of the Presidency of BiH from the rank of Croat people, Darijana Filipović, a candidate of the Croat Democratic Union of BiH (HDZ BiH) won the most votes. Finally, Željka Cvijanović, backed by SNSD, is leading in the race for a Serb member of the Presidency of BiH.
The general elections in Republika Srpska entity resulted in a decisive victory for the ruling nationalist party – SNSD, led by Milorad Dodik. Despite Dodik being barred from holding public office following a conviction for defying international peace oversight decisions, his political influence remained dominant throughout the electoral cycle.
Savo Minić, the incumbent Prime Minister of Republika Srpska and a close ally of Dodik, secured victory in the race for the President of RS, defeating opposition challenger Branko Blanuša.
SNSD also secured a majority in the National Assembly of RS, winning nearly 39% of the vote.
“This is a big victory of the ruling coalition in RS, while SDA will probably return to power in the Federation. SDA achieved a good election result as the previous government did not perform well, including the failure to fulfill promises, particularly regarding the EU accession path of BiH. When it comes to RS, the citizens obviously do not mind about the political affairs and corrupt mechanisms of the ruling party. Obviously, the majority of those who voted are not bothered by poverty, poor living standards, poor health, education and culture, while the nationalist sentiment prevailed”, Tanja Topić remarks.
Topić adds that the bad result of the opposition in RS can be explained by their inability to agree on single candidates.
“Now they (the opposition) are blaming each other, pointing fingers at each other without critical self-reflection of their own failures. In spite of everything, this was the choice of citizens, voluntary or not, of those same citizens who constantly seek change and never make it. They fear change, because it would take them out of the comfort zone and the petty charm of corruption, which they use if necessary. In this labyrinth of constant threats of fear of others, the turning point was also marked by the death of Ratko Mladić, which homogenized voters according to the ethnic matrix”, she concludes.
Elaborating on the election results, Adi Ćerimagić stresses that “Dodik got what he wanted”.
“Both his candidates won – for the Republika Srpska and the state-level presidencies – and at entity level his party looks set to finish around five points stronger than in 2022. He was not standing himself, yet he emerged as the dominant figure of the night. He told reporters that had it not been for Donald Trump’s magnificent victory, we would probably be political dead men today”, Ćerimagić remarks.
In his opinion, “Dodik won by courting MAGA and the European far right, casting himself as a defender of Christian values against Muslims – a man who went from a wanted name on Western sanctions lists, unable to legally leave the country, to a guest at both the White House and the Kremlin”.
“His aims should be taken seriously, not dismissed as bluster. He has again set out his goal of dismantling most of Bosnia’s state-level institutions and, through a post shared by his daughter, floated himself as the next entity prime minister. The next four years will test EU’s ability to have any leverage and Bosnia’s constitutional order. If current trends continue, peace itself. The EU should have no illusions about its leverage. The actors who now hold sway over Dodik sit outside Brussels – in Washington, Moscow and, increasingly, Jerusalem – and none of them is particularly invested in Bosnia’s European path. Quite the contrary”, Ćerimagić underlines.
According to Adi Ćerimagić, “friends of the Western Balkans, the EU first among them, need to take all of this into account, and act”.
