The interlocutors of EWB from Skopje are not surprised by the decision made last week by the EU to decouple the EU accession process of Albania from North Macedonia, as the dispute with Bulgaria remains unresolved. They believe that there is a risk of a prolonged period of limbo, during which there will be no negotiations with the EU. This might lead to a change in the foreign policy priorities of the current government.
Albania is set to open its first negotiating cluster on 15 October, multiple media outlets reported last week. Meanwhile, North Macedonia is not expected to make a step forward even though it started its accession talks at the same time as Albania in 2022. Last week, the Permanent Representatives Committee (Coreper), consisting of the ambassadors of EU member states, discussed Albania’s fulfilment of opening benchmarks on Cluster 1: Fundamentals.
Albania and North Macedonia held their first accession conferences in July 2022, when the EU presented them with Negotiating Frameworks guiding their accession negotiations. The Council of the EU then adopted conclusions stating that North Macedonia will be able to complete the opening phase of accession negotiations as soon as it implements constitutional changes with a view to including Bulgarians as one of the nationalities living in the country. This was a condition set by Bulgaria, which had previously vetoed the adoption of the Negotiating Frameworks.
The new government of North Macedonia, elected in June and headed by nationalist VMRO-DPMNE, stated that it wanted to re-negotiate the conditions for proceeding to the next stage of the EU accession by delaying the required constitutional change. Experts commented for our portal earlier this year that neither Bulgaria nor the EU would be open to accepting it.
Dimitar Nikolovski: The country will be stuck in limbo
Commenting on the lack of progress on the EU path of North Macedonia, Dimitar Nikolovski, an Executive Director of Skopje-based EUROTHINK – Center for European Strategies, says for European Western Balkans that it seems that the Macedonian government is looking into a new orientation in terms of foreign policy.
“VMRO-DPMNE have found themselves entangled between the reality of EU accession framework, which includes the constitutional changes, and the electoral promises of ‘pride’ and not accepting the ‘Bulgarian dictate’. Furthermore, it is not a coincidence that Hungarian PM (Viktor) Orbán visited the country on the same day as the EU decision to de-couple Albania and North Macedonia. They now speak of a strategic partnership with Hungary”, Dimitar Nikolovski stresses.
During his visit, Orbán offered to mediate the dispute between North Macedonia and Bulgaria, but this was quickly rejected by the government in Sofia.
Nikolovski underlines that he does not see a solution to the problem with Bulgaria any time soon, as there is no willingness on the side of Bulgaria or the EU to re-negotiate the framework, “thus, the country will be stuck in this limbo, and the space for other international illiberal actors, such as Russia or Serbia will be further opened”.
“VMRO-DPMNE either does not understand the reality in which North Macedonia is or are intentionally looking to practically abandon European integration, despite the rhetorical declarations of still being on the ‘European path’”, he concludes.
Aleksandar Kržalovski: Bulgaria does not show signs of goodwill
Similarly, Aleksandar Kržalovski, a Director of the Macedonian Center for International Cooperation, states for EWB that decoupling of Albania from Macedonia was at this point an expected decision, “as Albania did several reforms in the last two years since the opening of negotiations with both countries, as well as fulfilled the main political obstacle – veto from Greece – by releasing the detained mayor of Greek ethnicity”.
“On the other hand, Macedonia did not fulfil the major political condition that was required to have this second inter-governmental conference, the Constitutional changes to include explicit mentioning of Bulgarians. The previous Government led by SDSM agreed to do this without obtaining national consensus, and it was not enacted, as they could not even get to two-thirds majority MPs to do it”, Aleksandar Kržalovski clarifies.
He adds that, after this May’s elections, the new Government, led by VMRO-DPMNE, as expected, did not enter into fulfilling this condition, but is instead trying to improve or revert it by various proposals to the EU and Bulgaria.
“At the same time, Bulgaria does not show signs of goodwill and positive neighbourly relations by, for example, allowing registration of association of ethnic Macedonians, as per European Court of Human Rights verdicts. However, there is no reason to believe that Bulgaria will accept any of these ideas to break the deadlock. On the contrary, these days they enacted yet another declaration, with a unanimous vote by all parties. Also, EU itself is constantly repeating that the reached agreement is binding and there will be no further steps in integration, until Constitutional changes are made”, Kžalovski remarks.
He concludes that, unless that happens, there will perhaps be a prolonged period without negotiations for North Macedonia, as in the case of the Greek veto for NATO membership in 2008b and also with the EU negotiations from 2009 until 2018.