The first-instance verdict against Milorad Dodik, President of Republika Srpska, by the top court in Bosnia and Herzegovina, has sparked tensions in BiH and posed a threat to a fragile stability in the country. Shortly after the ruling was delivered, the National Assembly of Republika Srpska adopted the law that banned Bosnia’s central police and judicial authorities from acting on the territory of this entity.
The verdict against Dodik, which sentenced him to one year in prison and barred him from politics for six years, came after a year-long trial on charges that he failed to obey the decisions of Christian Schmidt, High Representative of the International Community in BiH. Dodik’s co-accused, the former acting director of Republika Srpska’s Official Gazette, Miloš Lukić, was acquitted. The second-instance verdict is expected to be delivered by the end of this year.
Dodik stated that he would not personally appeal the first-instance verdict but noted that he could not influence his lawyers “if they decide to do so for their own reasons”.
Following the verdict, on 26 February, Milorad Dodik addressed a rally in Banja Luka, where he launched severe accusations against the Court of BiH and the judge who made the decision, Sena Uzunović. According to him, “from today BiH does not exist any longer”, and the verdict “is politically motivated and driven by racial and national hatred against Serbs”.
On the same day, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić convened Serbia’s National Security Council for an emergency meeting before traveling to Banja Luka, at the invitation by Dodik. Vučič claimed the ruling was unlawful” and “undemocratic”, aimed at undermining Republika Srpska.
After the meeting with Vučić, Dodik said that peace remained a priority and that there were no plans for war in BIH. However, he also announced plans to bar state judicial and security institutions from operating in Republika Srpska.
The controversial laws adopted by the Parliament of RS in a response to the verdict
On 27 February, the Parliament of Republika Srpska adopted the Law on non-application of laws and prohibition of activities of “non-constitutional institutions of BiH”, which stipulated that laws on the Court and Prosecutor’s Office of BiH, State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA), and the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Office of BiH (HJCP) would not be applied or executed on the territory of Republika Srpska.
On the same occasion, lawmakers in the National Parliament of RS also adopted legislation to establish a ‘special register’ for non-profit organisations, the so-called ‘foreign agents law’ that critics believe will target NGOs and independent media. Opposition parties boycotted the vote.
Nenad Stevandić, the Speaker of the National Assembly of RS, said that thereby Republika Srpska “was preserving the constitutional status, and, therefore, peace”. In his opinion, “Republika Srpska does not call for any conflicts, but such calls only come from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina”.
On the other hand, Denis Bećirović, a Bosniak member of the BiH Presidency, interpreted the act of the Parliament in Banjaluka as an “aggressive attack on the constitutional order of BiH”.
The High Representative in BiH also stated that the actions by the ruling coalition in RS “seek to destabilize the institutions exercising constitutional responsibilities of the State, in accordance with the laws of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and whose establishment has been confirmed constitutional by the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina”.
“Entities are obliged to comply fully with the Constitution and laws of BiH. Members urge immediate cessation of all activities that undermine the Dayton Peace Agreement and the constitutional and legal order of Bosnia and Herzegovina. These actions contradict the commitments Bosnia and Herzegovina has undertaken on the EU path”, the statement reads.
Vehid Šehić: The first-instance verdict has fueled a political crisis in the country
Commenting on the impact of the verdict against the President of RS on the situation in BiH, Vehid Šehić, a legal expert and president of Forum of Tuzla Citizens, states for EWB that when we talk about the case of Milorad Dodik, “we have to say that it is the first-instance decision, which is not in force yet, so it does not produce legal effects until becomes final and enforceable”.
“Nonetheless, such a verdict has fueled a political crisis, and I must underline that we have lived for many years in the ongoing political crisis. We witnessed that the National Assembly of RS adopted a law on the non-application of laws of the institutions of BiH, i.e. of the laws which had been adopted in the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH, consisting of the House of Representatives and the House of People. According to the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, laws can be altered and annulled only by the legislative body that adopted them, which means the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH”, Vehid Šehić clarifies.
Having this in mind, he says, the law adopted by the National Assembly of the RS has no legal effects, according to the BIH Constitution. In addition, it should be stressed that the opposition members of the RS Parliament did not vote in favour of such a law
Šehić adds that, based on the General Framework Agreement for Peace in BiH, the signatory countries – BiH, Croatia and Serbia, should bear in mind that they have obligated to contribute by their activities to the political stability in BiH, and, thereby, in the region.
Tanja Topić: The citizens are full of anxiety, and some of them have already packed their bags
Similarly, Tanja Topić, a political analyst and head of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation office in Banja Luka, says for European Western Balkans that the whole trial was accompanied by the “elevated political temperature”, since Dodik made disparaging comments on the Court, while simultaneously participating in the proceedings, “which is also a kind of controversy”.
“Even before the verdict was delivered, the political leadership of Republika Srpska had made threats that if Dodik were to be found guilty, it would mean the end of BiH. The next controversy is a ‘generous offer’ by Republika Srpska to start a conversation and dialogue with authorities from the Federation, while unilaterally passing acts that are openly directed against the state of BiH. So, we are spinning in the labyrinth of blackmail, threats and raising tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina”, Tanja Topić stresses.
Topić notes that, according to the similar scenarios that we have seen earlier, it can be assumed that this latest “gambling game” is aimed at “gaining a certain concession, either by the European Union, or by the domestic political actors at the state level”.
“This scenario is already predictable – the noose is tightened to the point of suffocation, the question of conflict erupts, almost on the brink of war, and then the war trumpets go silent, and the arsonists become peacekeepers. I do not know where the latest undermining of relations in BiH leads, but, in any case, nothing good can happen. Ahead of the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Peace Agreement, the citizens are full of anxiety, fear, and some of them have already packed their bags”, Topić concludes.
Neven Anđelić: The only good news is that both the sub-state RS and the state of BIH lack the capacity to actually use violence
According to Neven Anđelić, an assistant professor of international relations and human rights at Regent’s University London, a deterioration of the situation following the sentencing of Dodik became “almost inevitable”, since “Dayton Agreement created a state that struggled to develop prosperity for its citizens but successfully prevented serious and violent security challenges”.
“The presence and the role of the international community were supreme in maintaining such conditions for thirty years. Challenges elsewhere for the global West and the realisation by domestic leaders that, due to the Western lack of interest, resources or tools for the implementation, they can continue with their agenda as long as they do not disturb general security arrangement, have developed a new situation in Bosnia Herzegovina during the mandate of the previous and the current High Representative. While the former spent most of his activities in Sarajevo restaurants, the latter’s legitimacy was challenged from the beginning. Regardless, the capacity and power of the institution of the High Representative is questionable now”, Neven Anđelić says for EWB.
Anđelić claims that Dodik’s followers “learnt by now that flying the western plane over Banja Luka is a long way from intervening against the anti-constitutional moves by the Republika Srpska’s institutions”.
“Meanwhile, political Sarajevo reacts by demanding the state’s action. It is another question of capacity – does the state have the capacity to legitimately use violence, as Weber prescribed 100 years ago, what is the capacity of Republika Srpska to resist such actions, will they dare to use violence in their secessionist moves, and, finally, can the West retain an interest in the Balkans while focusing on Ukraine”, Anđelić remarks.
In Anđelić’s opinion, “the only good news is that both the sub-state Republika Srpska and the state of Bosnia-Herzegovina lack the capacity to actually use violence”.
“However, I am not convinced by the West and the High Representative about their willingness to implement their interests and use the capacity that they have but have not shown for decades”, he underlines.