The decision by the officials of Republika Srpska, led by Milorad Dodik, to declare Anna Lührmann, Minister of State for Europe and Climate at the German Federal Foreign Office, a “persona non grata” is a stark reminder of the fact that Dodik will continue to deliberately provoke the EU and the West, assess the interlocutors of EWB.
It is believed that the recent expulsion of Lührmann from Banja Luka, after her meeting with the opposition groups, will make the President of RS even more politically isolated from the EU member states, most notably from Germany and Austria, which have already imposed sanctions on him, the Prime Minister of RS Radovan Višković and the Speaker of the National Assembly of RS Nenad Stevandić “for attacking the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina”.
On 4 April, Anna Lührmann stated that she had had “a number of excellent meetings with civil society and opposition” in Banja Luka. She added that “Dodik’s secessionist actions are unacceptable”.
“Towards the end of my program in Banja Luka, Dodik demonstrated again his destructive approach. His representatives threatened me and my delegation with violence. This is a sign of weakness. Dodik is increasingly isolated and lacks the support of the citizens of Republika Srpska”, she wrote on X.
The German official underlined that she had received “many supportive messages from Banja Luka – people are ashamed of Dodik’s actions”.
“I have a clear message to all people in RS: We will continue to stand by your side – on your path to prosperity, to stability and into the EU”, Anna Lührmann stressed.
On the other hand, Milorad Dodik claimed that Lührmann came to Banja Luka to “further belittle RS and to interfere in the internal affairs of RS and BiH”, adding that the authorities in RS had not been informed about her arrival.
“For this reason, the RS Government told her she was not welcome… The intentions of the current German government, which is leaving in a few days, were bad. And this minister who was here is part of that outgoing Green government, which can be equated with Hitler’s fascists when it comes to their attitude toward us”, he remarked.
It is likely that more countries will follow suit and impose sanctions on RS leadership
Speaking about the implications of the decision by RS authorities, Franz-Lothar Altmann, an independent German academic and professor of international relations at the University of Bucharest, states for EWB that “Dodik is very clearly trying to provoke Sarajevo, the High Representative and the EU to undertake robust steps against him and his regime in order to blame then the others for the definitive split”.
“Mrs. Lührmann is State Minister in the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and by this, Deputy Foreign Minister. To not allow her entrance to the Parliament in Banja Luka and even to threaten her with physical force is an international affront. RS is not a recognized sovereign state and cannot declare a person non grata, i.e. this can do only the central goverment in Sarajevo”, Franz-Lothar Altmann explains.
He reminds that Dodik is already on the sanctions list in Germany and Austria and cannot visit these two countries anymore “which are pivotal for the Western Balkans”.
“Lührmann declared that the sanctions are not against the people in RS, but for Dodik personally. I can only hope that other EU countries will follow suit. If more countries do so, then the (intended?) isolation of Dodik would be stronger”, Altmann notes.
Altmann stresses that he cannot understand “why Brussels is still so patient with him and, for example, does not allow EUFOR to escort SIPA for arresting Dodik”.
“There is no hope that he will stop provoking; on the contrary, he wants the split with Sarajevo and the EU, supported by Vučić and Orban. What an unfortunate comradeship”, he concludes.
There is no way back after Dodik made an enemy out of the strongest nation in the EU
Elmedin Konaković, the Foreign Minister of Bosnia and Herzegovina, held an emergency press conference following the expulsion of the German official from Banja Luka. According to him:” “Dodik was ready to deprive Minister Lührmann of freedom and life”.
“We have official information from people on the ground that Dodik personally insisted on this action. The RS Ministry of Interior was ordered to ensure the delegation left Banja Luka immediately”, Konaković said.
Neven Anđelić, an assistant professor of international relations and human rights at Regent’s University London, says for EWB that “Milorad Dodik made a complete turn from the favourite of the West at the beginning of this century to joining the club of the main enemies of the West”.
“The adoption of nationalist rhetoric is not unheard of in the Western Balkans or Europe these days. The issue he does have now with the West is his behaviour. That is simply, regardless of ideology, unacceptable. Therefore, the sanctions and the real work behind the scenes on isolating him or, when the right moment arrives, removing him is certainly part of the thinking in Western capitals now. I do not think there is a way back”, Neven Anđelić notes.
In Anđelić’s opinion, Dodik “gambled now for a non-liberal authoritarian camp”.
“Perhaps he was led to this gamble by his experience a quarter of a century ago when it took a brave politician to confront the Bosnian Serbs’ nationalist elite and opt for Western values. There is no bravery now, and his gamble this time might be a wrong judgment because, around 2000, Bosnia and Herzegovina was the focus of global attention. Today, it is a periphery of global concerns”, he underlines.
According to Anđelić, Dodik’s is even more problematic “as potential benefits are tiny in the face of likely repercussions”.
“Could anyone consider a politician who sends home a European minister from an important country a likely figure to lead his nation to European integration? He simply narrowed his already narrow space for manoeuvre and made an enemy out of the strongest nation in the EU”, Neven Anđelić assesses.