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Hungarian EU Presidency will see strengthening of Orbán’s alliances, no major decisions on enlargement

Viktor Orban and Charles Michel at the start of Hungarian Council Presidency, 1 July 2024; Photo: European Union

While many in the European Union anticipated controversies during the Hungarian Presidency of the Council, the first week has exceeded expectations. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán visited Kyiev and then, uncoordinated with other EU leaders, Moscow, in what he described as a “peace mission”. The leaders of the EU quickly stressed that Orbán did not have a mandate to represent the Union during the visit to Russia.

This episode indicates that Orbán wants to have an active six months, but also that he will not hesitate to confront the positions of other EU member states. Nevertheless, the limited powers of the Presidency leave little space for an actual policy change. Hungary may make the headlines during the next six months, but, much like any other Presidency, it cannot impose decisions on other member states.

What does this mean for the EU enlargement policy towards the Western Balkans, which is among the seven priorities of the programme of the Hungarian Council Presidency? The importance of the region for Hungary is obvious, with some of the governments closer to Budapest than others. But what can the region realistically expect to happen by the end of the year? Our interlocutors believe – not very much.

What is Hungarian policy in the Balkans?

Srđan Cvijić, President of the International Advisory Committee of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP), says that the Hungarian foreign policy under Viktor Orbán went from being resolutely pro-EU and pro-NATO to “cosying up with Russia and China dubbed at the time the Eastern Opening”.

“As documented in one of the most all-encompassing studies on the question, the BCSP’s “Balkan Csárdás: Hungarian Foreign Policy Dance”, Western Balkans have always been part of the new expansion strategy of Orbán. Ever since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine in February 2022, because of its extreme political toxicity, the Eastern Opening had to be recalibrated to the so-called ‘Southeastern Opening’, making the Western Balkans, Turkey and the Caucasus even more central to Orbán’s foreign policy strategy”, he says.

Viktor Orban and Aleksandar Vučić; Photo: Instagram/buducnostsrbijeav

Cvijić, who is also a member of the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG), notes that Hungarian interests in the region are twofold: economic, which is a traditional goal pursued by Orbán’s predecessors, and spreading of the “illiberal alliance”, which is specifically tied with this government.

“Ever since the loss of the Law and Justice Party (PiS) in the Polish elections last year and the prior extreme cooling of relations with the Czech government due to Ukraine, Orbán was left with only an uneasy alliance with Slovakian Robert Fico. For this reason, Hungary is heavily investing in bilateral relations with Serbia and more importantly in personal relations with Aleksandar Vučić and his regime. The victory of the centre-right in North Macedonia (also) opens a new opportunity to reinvigorate relations with this country”, he says.

The limitations of the EU Presidency

Cvijić, however, does not believe that Hungary would manage to assert its policies in the Western Balkans during its presidency of the EU.

“There are two reasons for that. One is related to the particular moment in which the presidency comes, and the other to the changed institutional structure of the EU. Firstly, for at least six months after the European Parliament elections, the EU will be consumed by the process of nominating the new European Commission thus leaving little to no space for any meaningful policy let alone legislative changes”, Cvijić points out.

The vote for the President of the European Commission in the European Parliament is expected to take place in July, and Ursula von der Leyen was nominated for a second five-year term. The European Parliament will also have to confirm the new European Commission as a whole, and the member states are yet to nominate candidates for Commissioners. The process is expected to last until the autumn.

Secondly, Cvijić says, the governments of the countries holding a rotating presidency now have much less manoeuvring space to dictate the agenda of the presidency than before.

“With the Lisbon Treaty back in 2009, and the creation of the permanent institution of the president of the European Council this manoeuvring space has been additionally limited. All this indicates that apart from political PR stunts, the Hungarian Presidency will to a large extent remain in the shadows of the larger European processes”, Cvijić says.

No major decisions on enlargement will be needed?

The institutional restructuring in the next six months will also see another important development in EU enlargement, the appointment of the next Commissioner for this area. It was precisely Hungary that received this portfolio back in 2019. Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi has received criticism during his tenure for what was seen as downplaying the rule of law concerns in the candidate countries.

Srđan Cvijić does not believe that Hungary will receive this portfolio again.

“The talks in the Brussels corridors of power indicate that there is no chance of repeating the grave mistake of awarding one of the most important EC portfolios practically to the hands of Viktor Orbán”, Srđan Cvijić says.

Oliver Varhelyi and Viktor Orban; Photo: Twitter/zoltanspox

While the Commissioner in charge of enlargement plays an important role, especially in the technical part of the process, candidate countries can only advance with unanimous decisions in the Council.

Candidates in the Western Balkans are currently at different stages of the process. Montenegro’s next priority would be to start closing negotiating chapters, while Serbia, Albania and North Macedonia are waiting to open them, with various conditions attached.

Vedran Džihić, Senior Researcher at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs, believes that the possibilities of the Hungarian Council’s presidency in terms of the enlargement are very limited when it comes to reaching major decisions.

“No major decision regarding the future path of the Balkans towards the EU is on the agenda in the next few months. Ukraine and Moldova are set to take the next step and start negotiating. Still, none of the two will progress so fast that major decisions need to be taken during the Hungarian presidency”, Džihić says.

“Orbán will use the Presidency to re-position himself”

According to Vedran Džihić, who is also a member of BiEPAG, the Hungarian Presidency, together with the results of the elections for the European Parliament and the rise of far-right across Europe, now present a window of opportunity for Orbán to recalibrate alliances within Europe.

“This is why I believe that the Hungarian presidency of Council will largely be absorbed by Orbán’s attempts to position himself much better within the EU-27”, he says.

On 30 June, a day before the start of the Presidency, the Prime Minister of Hungary announced the formation of the new political group, “The Patriots for Europe”, together with the leader of the Austrian Freedom Party Herber Kickl and the ANO party of the former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš. As of 6 July, the “Patriots for Europe” is on the verge of attracting enough allies to formally become a group in the European Parliament.

“The ultimate aim (of this group) is to be active in the field of migration, climate change and regarding Ukraine policies. In other words, Orban, Kickl and Babiš, who obviously despise Brussels and the EU and believe that national states should regain power, want to change the power game in Brussels”, Džihić says.

He adds that this would further complicate enlargement since the members of the group have different views about it, with the Austrian Freedom Party, which is leading in the polls ahead of the national election in September, opposing accepting new members.

“In the end, Orban’s reign over the EU in the next six months will just be an intermezzo used to strengthen his alliances within the EU with no major impact on the Balkans. However, I do expect Orbán to do his utmost to protect his friends in the Balkans, Aleksandar Vučić in Serbia and Milorad Dodik in Bosnia, as well as VMRO-DPMNE in North Macedonia”, Vedran Džihić concludes.

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