In decades of the enlargement process, the conventional wisdom was clear, “transformative power of EU accession will lead to accepting EU standards which will improve the democracy and quality of life in a candidate country”. Once upon a time, this was a true statement.
However, the current enlargement, particularly in the case of Serbia, has broken even this, very logical and straightforward statement.
For the last 10 years, since the accession negotiations opened in 2014, Serbia has managed to get formally closer to EU membership while effectively moving away from EU standards and rules.
Formally, Serbia has, so far, opened 22 out of 35 chapters and closed two. On paper, this puts Serbia closer to EU membership than before 2014.
In reality, Serbia has managed to move away from fundamental EU membership requirements defined in Copenhagen criteria. This is particularly true of the political criterion which requires a country to have “stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities”. Since the EU is established as a club of democratic countries cherishing these values, the political criterion is The criterion for membership.
In all these aspects, Serbia is worse off today than it was 10 years ago. In the year of opening accession negotiations Serbia was considered to be:
- A free state with a semi-consolidated democracy (according to Freedom House). In 2024 it was a partially free state with a hybrid regime, with strong negative tendencies. Freedom House placed Serbia in the 14th place of countries with the largest decline of freedoms in the world in the last 10 years,
- The 54th country in the world in terms of freedom of speech, on the way to leaving the group of countries with a “Problematic situation” and move to the group with “Satisfactory situation” (according to Reporters Without Borders). In 2024 Serbia was in the 98th place, falling out of the “Problematic situation” group into a lower group of countries with “Difficult situation”.
- The 78th country on the global scale of corruption, out of 180 countries (according to Transparency International). In 2023 it fell to the 104th place.
All this has occurred during the accession negotiations and with the annual progress reporting of the European Commission.
While all international watchdog organisations for years report on the state of democracy and the rule of law in Serbia with diagrams that resemble temperature forecasts in January in Scandinavia, the Commission’s reports on Serbia show a steady flat line with no backsliding and occasionally some progress. According to Commission in the period 2015-2024, Serbia advanced (on the scale 1-5) in all three Copenhagen criteria. In the political criterion (democracy, judiciary, corruption, organised crime, money laundry, etc) from 2.2 (in 2015) to 2.4 (in 2024), in economic criterion from 3.00 (in 2015) to 3.50 (in 2024) and in the harmonisation of legislation from 2.88 (in 2015) to 3.11 (in 2024).
“How is this possible?” A logical question, having in mind that the EU accession negotiations had been designed to drive a country towards EU standards and not away from them.
The reason lies in the Commission transforming this process into a “ticking-the-box-exercise”, reporting on the adoption of different strategies, legislation, and documents which never get implemented and moving away from the “value-based” approach to a “geopolitical” thinking (whatever “geopolitics” might mean for the Commission).
An obvious example of this is the 2024 Annual Report, where in chapter 5 on Public Procurement the Commission states that “public investment management and public procurement procedures continue to be marked by numerous exemptions from standard procedures”. “The total value of contracts exempted from the application of the Public Procurement Law increased from EUR 6.4 billion in 2022 to EUR 7.1 billion in 2023, i.e. roughly the same as the total value of the public procurement market [€7.3 billion] in 2023.”, meaning that approximately 10% of Serbia’s GDP was spent through exemptions from the Public Procurement Law while “the share of tenders with only one submitted bid remained at around 51%, higher than the 2024 target share of 47% which Serbia had committed to in the context of the EU Public Finance Management budget support”. We can see that, even though the Commission was aware that only 3% of all public contracts (approximately 200 million €) were awarded through the Public Procurement Law and that 51% of all tenders had only one bidder, it assessed that “Limited progress [grade 2 on the scale 0-5] was made through amendments to the Public Procurement Law”, completely avoiding the fact that the Public Procurement Law is a dead letter.
In October 2024, a week before publishing the 2024 Annual Report the Commission’s President von der Leyen, knowing what is written inside, openly praised “the steady progress” in the rule of law in Serbia, in a country where 5% of GDP was spent through one-bidder-tenders and additional 5% through exemptions from the Public Procurement Law.
With such unsubstantiated praising, laissez-faire reporting, and no naming and shaming, no elite would ever give up its corruptive and transactional profits, change its behaviour and transform the country according to Copenhagen criteria. For such an elite, the position of Serbia is perfect, being close enough to the EU to get praise, funds and benefits, while not having to make substantial changes in line with EU rules and membership requirements.
Now is high time to get out of this deadlock and go back to factory settings of 15-20 years ago, when the Commission was assessing the substance and accession had a real transformative power based on fundamental democratic values and not transactions and clientelism. The new Enlargement Commissioner Kos inherited a hot potato from her predecessors and has the difficult task of restoring credibility and trust in the enlargement process. This cannot be done without openness and truth which have been lacking for many years.