On Saturday, 15 March, Serbia expects to see the largest student protest so far and possibly one of the biggest protests in the history of the country, in the capital of Belgrade. Since last week, the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has been warning about the plots for the violent overthrow of the government on that day, without providing any specific evidence.
Student-led movement, which has emerged following the fatal collapse of the Novi Sad railway station in November, has mobilized the Serbian society to an unprecedented degree. Some of the largest protests in the history of the country have been held in the university centres since February, all of them completely peaceful and without incidents.
For 15 March, the students announced the culmination of this phase of the protests in Belgrade, where they once again asked for a peaceful gathering. While there were speculations in public that the protest would be a “D-Day” which would lead to political consequences for the government, the students announced that the protests would continue after Saturday, and that they would continue to insist on the fulfilment of their demands for accountability and transparency for the Novi Sad tragedy.
Nevertheless, the ruling party appears to be pulling the plugs to limit the number of protesters in Belgrade on 15 March. On Friday, 14 March, it was announced that the railway would stop operating across the country for two days, after a supposed bomb threat. Many immediately interpreted this step as a way to prevent people from coming to Belgrade.
Since the start of this week, public officials and media close to the ruling party have been loudly claiming that violence is being prepared on Saturday, using charged terms such as “civil war” and “bloodshed”. They provided little details and no specific evidence for these claims.
The Serbian public is divided over the interpretations of whether the narratives promoted by the ruling party are meant only to discourage protesters from coming or as a pretext for a violent suppression of protests on 15 March. Several actors, including the University of Belgrade and Serbian Orthodox Church, have called for peaceful protest on Saturday.
In yesterday’s letter to the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, 35 MEPs from six different groups urged her to “publicly warn the Serbian government before March 15 that any repression will directly impact Serbia’s EU prospect”.
President Vučić’s unspecified announcements of violence
On Monday, 10 March, President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić addressed the public several times, announcing that the protesters on 15 March will commit violence. For several weeks, Vučić has been pushing the narrative that the student protests are a part of a Western-backed “coloured revolution” against the government, without providing evidence. Now, he claimed, the organizers will attempt violence because, according to him, the protests are losing momentum.
He did not specify who will commit violence. At one point during the interview for the public broadcaster, on 10 March, Vučić claimed that peaceful students will be abused by those who want to violently overthrow the government in a “coloured revolution”, but at another point he said that students may also be in on the plot.
Vučić also claimed that the state institutions know “everything” about the plans, but that they cannot prevent them in advance, because there will be too many people at the protest. He described how some of the supposed violence will look like.
“It has already been agreed who will start throwing eggs, who will start throwing stones, torches at the National Assembly… When the violence starts, we will let them, so that you (the public) can see the perpetrators. Our units will endure the assault. But then, the state will act as it should, it will retaliate and arrest all outlaws”, Vučić said.
A very similar scenario to what Vučić described already took place in Serbia twice in recent years. In December 2023, during the protests against election irregularities, Belgrade City Hall was vandalized, while in November 2024 the same happened to the Novi Sad City Hall.
On both occasions, at least some of the attackers were young men in hooligan attire who inflicted damage on the buildings, which were protected by the police from the inside. Also on both occasions, the police let the attack go on for some time before dispersing the protests.
There were claims that at least some of the attackers were provocateurs of the ruling party and that these people were not prosecuted for the violence. The footage of both attacks was used in the pro-government media to discredit the protests.
Based on these events and Vučić’s announcements, a part of the public believes that the ruling party will orchestrate something similar on 15 March, with the building of the National Assembly being one of the targets.
Camp in the Pioneer Park: A generator of violent incidents?
Since 6 March, a group of people referring to themselves as “Students Who Want To Learn” have been setting up tents in the park in front of the Presidency of Serbia and the Belgrade City Hall, which is directly adjacent to the square in front of the National Assembly of Serbia, where the protest on 15 March is scheduled to take place.
The camp has political and logistical support of the ruling party. The students, most prominent of whom is Miloš Pavlović, close to the SNS, claim that they demand the unblocking of the universities. They have copied some of the symbolism and communication style of the students in the blockade, and their activities are widely covered by the media outlets close to the government.
Ever since the camp was set up, however, there have been reports that many of those present there are not students. On 12 March, a reporter of N1 television filmed a conversation with a woman who was organizing the campers, revealing that they are paid 8,000 RSD (around 70 EUR) for one “shift” of camping. Reports of people employed in the state institutions of Serbia (including Serbian institutions in Kosovo) being organized to come and stay in the “student” camp, have also emerged.
Some highly controversial persons and groups with ties to the ruling party have visited the camp in the Pioneer Park to show their support. These included far-right politicians, convicted war criminals and retired members of the defunct Special Operations Unit (JSO), which was responsible for the assassination of Prime Minister Zoran Đinđić and other political assassinations during the Milošević regime.
Even more worryingly, there have been indications that the ruling party is gathering people with criminal records in the camp, with potential incidents planned for 15 March. On 12 March, Vice President of the opposition Freedom and Justice Party (SSP) Marinika Tepić released an audio recording of Miljan Hofman, whom she described as “one of the members of brothers Vučić’s black shirts” announcing a “D-Day”, apparently for 15 March, and organizing other men to come equipped. Hofman has a criminal record and has been working as security at SNS events.
Furthermore, Vesna Mališić, editor-in-chief of the weekly Radar, claimed on the same day that this outlet has gained information that a group which participated in the organization of the 2023 Banjska attack in Kosovo had arrived in Belgrade.
These developments have raised concerns that the camp will potentially serve as a generator of violent incidents on Saturday. On several occasions since it was set up, a group of protesters gathered in front of the camp and jeered, but things did not escalate further.
On Thursday, President Vučić appeared to be backing down when he publicly asked the campers to leave the site on Saturday to avoid any risks. The final decision is still pending.
Leaked conversation of opposition activists used to spread the narrative of a pending “civil war”
On Thursday, 14 March, in a prime-time slot, five TV stations close to the ruling party ran a special programme where they discussed in detail an hour-long audio footage of a meeting of opposition activists in Novi Sad, supposedly held two days earlier. The programme was announced as a revelation of a “civil war” and “bloodshed” planned for Saturday.
In the leaked meeting, several members of the left-wing activist groups and young activists of the liberal opposition party Free Citizens Movement discussed potential actions for Saturday, including an incursion into the National Assembly or the public broadcaster. The participants did not commit to a single proposal and several of them made it clear that these would be symbolic actions with the goal of scoring “small victories”.
Pro-government journalists commented extensively on the discussion, interpreting it as plans of terrorist acts and a civil war. They claimed that the recorded conversation was sent to them by an undisclosed participant of the meeting, though suspicions about the surveillance of state security services are present in the public.
The participants in the meeting are not the organizers of the protests on Saturday and are not affiliated with the students, who forcefully distanced themselves from them following the programme. Free Citizens Movement issued a statement declaring that the conversation does not represent the position of the party.