BANJA LUKA – “The crisis in BIH would be resolved by the withdrawal of the laws imposed by the High Representative Christian Schmidt and after that we would be ready to annul the laws that have been recently adopted by the Parliament of Republika Srpska”, said Nenad Stevandić, Speaker of Republika Srpska Parliament, at the today’s press conference. Fokus portal reports that Stevandić stressed that he would be ready to “beg” President and Prime Minister of RS, Milorad Dodik, and Radovan Višković, “to think again and make a compromise when it comes to these laws”.
Stevandić added that the authorities of RS had requested the international arbitration between Bosnia and Herzegovina and RS to be launched, over “the violations of the Dayton Peace Agreement”.
“We sent the request to all signatories of the Agreement and to all major countries, including the Venice Commission of the Council of Europe”, he clarified.
The Court of BiH issued a central arrest warrant for Dodik, Višković and Stevandić on 12 March. They are suspected of the criminal offense of undermining constitutional order. The Prosecutor’s Office had intensified its activities following a series of actions by RS authorities, led by Dodik, after he was sentenced by the Court of BiH on 26 February to one year in prison and six years of political disqualification for failing to comply with decisions of the High Representative.
In a reaction to the verdict, the National Assembly of RS adopted a series of controversial laws, including a draft of a new constitution of the entity, as well as the Law on non-application of laws and prohibition of activities of “non-constitutional institutions of BiH”, which stipulated that laws on the Court and Prosecutor’s Office of BiH, State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA), and the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Office of BiH (HJCP) would not be applied or executed on the territory of Republika Srpska.
Tanja Topić: Leadership of RS is trying to find an exit strategy out a situation they caused themselves
Commenting on the latest messages by Nenad Stevandić, Tanja Topić, a political analyst and head of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation office in Banja Luka, says for European Western Balkans that it is “plan B” and an effort to find “an exit strategy out of a situation that the political leadership of RS had caused themselves”.
“Now Nenad Stevandić takes over the main negotiating role, he stands out as the first parliamentarian, although in the entire process of passing laws, which the Constitutional Court of BiH declared unconstitutional, he was only a stuntman. This message, or the offer, in any case differs from the messages we have heard in the past weeks”, Tanja Topić explains.
Topić underlines that “at the same time, Dodik, Višković and Stevandić are ready to ‘forgive and forget’ all criminal charges filed against them by the judicial institutions of BiH if a political deal is reached, and if their ultimatum, which is clear from day one – annulment of the decisions of the High Representative, is fulfilled”.
“It is, I would say, a misjudgment of these political actors – they counted on the support of the new American administration, which was obviously absent, and, secondly, they did not receive support from citizens, as well as from most employees in BiH state institutions who were required to leave their jobs”, she clarifies.
According to Topić, it is difficult to say whether everything will be returned to “factory setting” and whether, “not only some of the international but domestic actors, as well, are ready for this kind of concessions, in a situation that has stirred tensions in BiH”.
“Until now, such models have always encountered fertile ground, so that the rule of law, for who knows how long, would be the collateral damage of political agreements”, she concludes.
Adi Ćerimagić: International pressure is starting to have an effect
Adi Ćerimagić, a Senior Analyst at European Stability Initiative, assesss that Stevandić’s offer this morning is a sign that pressure on Milorad Dodik and his supporters is beginning to show its first, albeit small, effects.
“This pressure has primarily come from within Republika Srpska—especially from opposition parties and segments of the business community. The opposition has presented a clear and compelling argument: that recent steps targeting state-level judicial and law enforcement institutions, as well as civil society, have nothing to do with improving the position of Republika Srpska or the wellbeing of its citizens, but rather serve the personal agenda of Dodik and his closest allies”, Ćerimagić says.
According to him, this shows that international pressure is also starting to have an effect. This includes pressure from actors whom Dodik wrongly expected to be sympathetic to him, such as the Trump administration or Turkey.
“More importantly, it reflects the impact of a much stronger and more coordinated push by a group of EU member states led by Germany. Their firm response now appears both necessary and justified. Still, no one should be under the illusion that this crisis is close to resolution”, he says.
Ćerimagić believes that the content of Stevandić’s offer is neither credible nor realistic, adding that Dodik and his allies have long pursued an agenda aimed at dismantling state-level institutions, consistently creating legal uncertainty and institutional paralysis.
“What is different now is the unprecedented scale and seriousness of their actions—including direct challenges to key state bodies and the confrontation of different law enforcement structures, with the real risk of violence”, Senior Analyst at European Stability Initiative says.
He adds that simply pausing this agenda should not be sufficient, because every past pause has been followed by an even more aggressive escalation.
“What is needed now is clear and verifiable evidence that all decisions of the state-level Constitutional Court are respected, that all laws and by-laws adopted by RS institutions in defiance of the constitutional order are annulled, and that all political declarations—including conclusions—are withdrawn. The constitutional and institutional order established after 1995, as well as rule of law, must be fully upheld and protected by all actors”, Ćerimagić adds.
He concludes that the political actors can then begin meaningful discussions about reforms, including the future role and powers of the international high representative. According to him, the most legitimate and effective framework for such discussions remains the EU accession negotiation process.