Serbia sees France as a significant partner – in political, military and economic terms, while France hopes that by strengthening ties with Serbia, primarily economic ones, it will not only overtake Germany as its main rival in the EU but also contribute to the goal of the “strategic autonomy of the Union”, says Johanna Deimel, an independent German senior analyst for the Western Balkans and Southeast Europe, for EWB. Macron will visit the cities of Belgrade and Novi Sad today and tomorrow, at the invitation of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.
It is expected that an agreement on the purchase of 12 French Rafale fighter jets, among others, will be finalised during the visit, which, according to the President of Serbia “will significantly improve our combat capabilities”. Vučić also announced that the construction of nuclear energy capacities would be discussed, but he denied the claims that had appeared in recent days that French nuclear waste would be stored in Serbia.
Macron: The EU needs a strong and democratic Serbia, and Serbia needs a strong and sovereign EU
On the eve of his arrival in Serbia, the French President wrote in an op-ed published by dailies Danas and Politika that “the EU and its member states need to have a strong and democratic Serbia in their ranks, and Serbia needs a strong and sovereign EU to defend and promote its interests while respecting its identity“.
According to Macron, Serbia cannot “seek its path in the eternal game of balancing between great powers”. Serbia will be able to remain Serbia “only under the wing of the EU – a union of sovereign states that share the same vision of their future”, he wrote.
“Like France, I am convinced of this, Serbia strives for independence and sovereignty that only the European Union, with the means of its strategic autonomy, can give it. We will build this strategic autonomy together by providing ourselves with the means to ensure our security and strengthen our defence cooperation. But we will also build it in the field of industry in all sectors where we need to unite in order to be more resilient in the face of the relentless international competition, in the field of critical raw materials, drugs, artificial intelligence, for example. Serbia also plays a key role in an enlarged and strengthened European Union”, the French President stated.
Stressing the need for the normalisation of the relations between Belgrade and Pristina, Macron also noted that he would remain personally engaged in the implementation of the Ohrid Agreements, and, first of all, in the establishment of the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities.
Johanna Deimel: There are nuances in the French position towards Kosovo
Johanna Deimel says for EWB that the intensity of the bilateral meetings between French President Emmanuel Macron and his Serbian counterpart Aleksandar Vučić is remarkable and that it underlines the importance that both countries have historically developed for each other. Therefore, she recalls the fact that Macron’s first visit to Belgrade in 2019 marked the 180th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations with Serbia.
“There have been over 20 meetings since then. In Paris, Aleksandar Vučić was received with great honour at the Elysee Palace in April of this year. In Serbia’s eyes, France is an important strategic partner: politically, militarily and economically. Kosovo plays an important role in this. France was one of the first European states to recognise Kosovo in 2008 and since then has repeatedly worked to normalise relations between Serbia and Kosovo and implement the Brussels Agreement”, Johanna Deimel explains.
Deimel adds that President Macron and the then German Chancellor Angela Merkel convened the “Balkan Summit” in Berlin in 2019 in order to achieve a breakthrough and that the “renewed attempt” was a Franco-German proposal in 2023, which should have been signed in Ohrid by Albin Kurti and Aleksandar Vučić.
“And in October 2023, French President Macron, together with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, made an attempt – again unsuccessful – to convince Pristina and Belgrade to sign the normalisation agreement. A closer look reveals nuances of France’s own stance towards Kosovo: For Macron, a land swap, which Angela Merkel categorically rejected, would have been open to debate since he said that there should be ‘no taboos’. France is insisting on the implementation of the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities, thereby siding with Belgrade and (with Germany) sweeping Kosovo’s aspirations for membership of the Council of Europe off the table with this demand”, Deimel clarifies.
Johanna Deimel stresses that France has just condemned the unilateral measures taken by the Kosovo authorities in northern Kosovo in very strong terms. In her opinion, “Pristina is in danger of overstepping the mark and getting into increasing trouble with its European partners as well as the USA”.
“The outcome of the US presidential elections in November will be decisive. If Donald Trump is re-elected, the land swap could also be back on the agenda”, Deimel claims.
“Macron’s central demand plays into the hands of Vučić’s stabilocracy”
Since taking office in May 2017, the French president has largely revised his position on the enlargement of the European Union. Five years ago, he claimed that he rejected “any EU enlargement prior to the deep EU reform”. He still insists on reforming the Union, but since the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, he has taken the position that it is necessary to speed up the enlargement process and has repeatedly warned of the danger of “enlargement fatigue”.
At the initiative of France, a new enlargement methodology was adopted at the beginning of 2020. In September 2023, the Franco-German working group published proposals for reforming the EU institutions, in order to be ready for the admission of new members.
Nevertheless, Johanna Deimel thinks that it was “extremely convenient for Vučić” that Macron pushed through his central demand, i.e. a new methodology in the EU enlargement process, “which effectively put EU enlargement on hold”.
“All of this plays into the hands of Vučić’s stabilocracy. Belgrade can continue to act autocratically and at the same time claim that Serbia is striving for EU membership. An EU to the liking of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has repeatedly campaigned for Serbia to join the EU, would please fans of illiberal democracy such as Aleksander Vučić, but would derail the entire European unification project based on democracy and the rule of law. However, the Eurosceptics and right-wing nationalist forces in Germany, Austria and France are too strong for enlargement to even be considered in the foreseeable future”, Deimel remarks.
A French-German rivalry in Serbia
Speaking about Macron’s political course towards Serbia, Deimel states that we should also keep in mind the French “race” with Germany, which has been particularly intensified due to the consequences of the war in Ukraine, including migration and economic and social effects.
“The German economy is in trouble. Germany is still Serbia’s most important economic partner. In order to secure its own automotive industry, Berlin has thrown European values overboard and thrown itself into Belgrade’s arms over lithium, to the detriment of its own and of the EU’s reputation. The race is on. Although Macron lost massively in the French parliamentary elections and the country is looking for a government, France is of strategic importance to Serbia as a European nuclear power and the second-largest European economic power. France already has a strong economic presence in Serbia: it has modernised the airport in Belgrade, it is building a metro and is involved in the defence industry and the IT sector. For Belgrade, economic ties also go hand in hand with France politically”, she stresses for EWB.
Deimel claims that Macron sees Serbia as playing an important role in strengthening the strategic autonomy of the European Union.
“According to the Financial Times, the sale of 12 French Rafaele multi-purpose fighter jets is biggest military deal in Serbia’s history. The deal is problematic, however, as there are warnings that Belgrade could use the jets against Kosovo. France is therefore insisting on Serbia’s recognition of Kosovo. A critical eye must also be cast on the nuclear deal between Paris and Belgrade. Although the Memorandum of Understanding with the French state-owned energy electricity company provides for the construction of nuclear power plants in Serbia, it is conceivable, according to critical voices, that France also wants to generously dump its nuclear waste in Serbia. Whether the aim is to extract resources (Germany: lithium) or to get rid of nuclear waste (France) – in both cases, national interests take precedence over possible environmental and other consequential damage to Serbia”, she underlines.
The Government of Serbia has denied the claims of several media that there is a deal with France over the storage of nuclear waste.
European Political Community – an attempt to demonstrate the unity vis-à-vis Russia
Emmanuel Macron is also known as the brain behind the idea of forming a European Political Community, as a platform for political coordination of EU members and non-EU countries, including Serbia. This initiative was implemented after the start of the war in Ukraine.
Speaking about the importance of the European Political Community, Johanna Deimel stresses that we have known that Macron has big ideas for Europe since 2017, when he called for the foundation of a sovereign, united and democratic Europe”, and for reforms to make the community more crisis-resilient.
“It is indeed remarkable that the stalemate surrounding EU enlargement and thus the strategic neglect of the Western Balkans region, which is also so important in terms of security policy, is not only but largely due to France’s veto and the new methodology. In 2022, in response to the war in Ukraine, Macron presented the idea of a European Political Community. 47 states participate – including countries that are not or not yet EU members”, she clarifies.
Deimel claims that Macron’s initiative is the result of his concerns about European security and that he is looking for new forms of cooperation outside the structures of the EU.
“His warning in the speech at the Sorbonne University in April 2024 should also be understood in this context: ‘Europe is mortal. It can die’. It is an important signal to Russia that the nuclear power United Kingdom is also a member of the EPC alongside the nuclear power France. Initial concerns that the EPC could develop into a competitive body to the EU have not yet been validated. The EPC is a forum for dialogue and the meetings are driven by the desire to demonstrate political unity vis-à-vis Russia. Aleksandar Vučić and his Balkan colleagues have been allowed to join the EPC meetings, most recently in London in July. Unfortunately for Vučić, however, the non-EU members were not given the opportunity to speak”, Johanna Deimel concludes.