In 1984, George Orwell came up with the concept of “double-think” which is the acceptance of two contradictory beliefs simultaneously. Those who have been following the current protests in Serbia through statements from officials and media close to the government are currently practising this skill, as they are expected to accept two truths at once – that the West is trying to overthrow President Vučić, and that the West supports President Vučić.
The first “truth”, that the West is trying to overthrow the President and the Government in Serbia, has been circulated for several months since the protests began after the collapse of the canopy in Novi Sad. This is nothing new – the whole narrative has been heard many times, especially during the anti-government protests that seem to be occurring more frequently and with increasing intensity in Serbia.
Thus, during a recent tour through the Rasina District in central Serbia, organized as a reaction to the ongoing protests, the President stated that the country was being attacked “from the outside and from the inside.”
“Just when we pulled the country out of widespread poverty when Serbia started moving forward, it was suddenly attacked from the outside with huge amounts of money invested in unrest within the country, and further fueled by those irresponsible politicians in Serbia who want to return to power at any cost, without elections,” said Aleksandar Vučić in the municipality of Brus.
A few weeks earlier, during an appearance on pro-government Happy TV, the President spoke in more detail about the alleged attempt at a colour revolution being carried out against Serbia.
“Everything they are doing is an attempt at a colour revolution. And there is no doubt about that… All of this is being done by foreign instructors, coming from several Western countries. Some are coming from the East, where they carried out dirty work for the Western intelligence network,” Vučić explained to the show’s host, Milomir Marić.
He added that “there is a combination of several Western intelligence agencies and regional agencies, primarily from Croatia but also Albanian ones, i.e. from Kosovo, as well as some others, aiming to destroy Serbia from within so that it cannot be a serious factor on the international stage and so that it would collapse through inter-Serb conflicts.”
Miloš Vučević, Prime Minister of Serbia, also spoke about the toppling of the country from abroad when he announced that he would resign on 28 January 2025. Vučević said that the atmosphere in society, where “everything is on the brink of conflict,” is “absolutely orchestrated from abroad.”
Vučević did not specify where such an atmosphere was created, but readers of government-friendly media likely had no difficulty filling in that gap themselves.
“The CIA is attacking Serbia through intermediaries! It won’t last much longer?!”, “Now it’s all clear, the West is behind the ‘student protests’,” “They created chaos according to the Maidan recipe,” were some of the headlines that appeared in tabloids close to the government, in this case, Informer and Večernje Novosti, over the past months, pointing the finger at one particular side of the world. Based on reports from these media outlets, one could get the impression that we are witnessing one of the most intense conflicts between the President and the West so far.
A victim or a partner?
Then, especially at the end of January, alongside the first “truth”, that the West is trying to overthrow Vučić, a second “truth” began to emerge – that the West supports Vučić. It all began with a post on X by Richard Grenell, the Special Envoy for United States President Donald Trump, about the protests in Serbia.
Grenell, who is familiar with the Balkans from his time as the Special Envoy for the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue during Trump’s first term, posted on X on January 25 that, while supporting the right to protest, he opposed the “violent takeover of government institutions.” This was widely interpreted as taking the side of the government and its interpretation of the protests.
Almost simultaneously with Grenell’s post, statements about the protests were made by Maria Zakharova, the spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Mao Ning, the spokeswoman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Although both statements were made in a diplomatic tone, they were interpreted as support for the authorities in Serbia.
On 27 January, Večernje Novosti reported that the “powerful trio,” meaning the USA, Russia, and China, opposed a change of government in Serbia, and Srpski Telegraf stated that both “America and Russia together” condemned the protests in Serbia, which, as noted, “has never happened in history.”
It is always important to raise your voice and to be heard.
But everyone must condemn violence and stick to peaceful demonstrations. The democratic process must be respected.
We do not support those who undermine the rule of law or who forcefully take over government… https://t.co/phI5QhCSAr
— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) January 25, 2025
From a sovereign leader under attack by a colour revolution, President Vučić, in media reports close to the government, has become a statesman supported by all the great powers. But it didn’t stop there, at least when it comes to confirming Western support.
Last week, President Vučić met with Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, who announced that Italy would participate in the Specialized Exhibition “Expo 2027”, the priority project of the current Serbian government. This was similarly confirmed by the outgoing Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz, on 6 February, according to media reports.
The day before, Vučić had a reportedly “good and substantial” conversation with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. The statement of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk who, after the resignation of Miloš Vučević, said that there would be no crisis in Serbia because President Vučić remains in power, was also reported by the pro-government media as a statement of support.
It has become difficult to keep track of all the Western leaders with whom the President of Serbia maintains good relations, raising the logical question – why doesn’t he ask them to stop the “colour revolution” and the “hybrid war” against Serbia, which, allegedly, their countries are waging? Instead, the parallel story of the foreign-backed overthrow continues simultaneously with endorsements from various foreign leaders.
Voters of the ruling party aren’t bothered by the contradictions, for now
Commenting on how the voters of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), to whom these messages are primarily aimed, react to these contradictions, Dejan Bursać, a research associate at the Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory from Belgrade, says that they don’t even try to reconcile them. As he assesses, Vučić has become somewhat of a master in sending contradictory and confusing messages to his target population because they still see him “as some great strategist who is capable of managing all of this.”
“We have often received messages from him on various topics, both economic, social, and political, and especially foreign policy, where he can be very contradictory. But he knows that his strong voter base, which is quite large, trusts him to ‘handle’ it, so they don’t get too caught up in crossing these contradictory logics,” Bursać adds.
However, what could change things is the fact that the polls show growing dissatisfaction with the situation in the country, primarily related to large protests and civic disobedience, Bursać says, adding that Aleksandar Vučić himself mentioned that anger is rising among his supporters.
“Dissatisfaction is growing because of what’s happening, and it seems that trust in Vučić as someone all-powerful, a 5D chess player who knows how to play everyone and always ends up with a favourable outcome for Serbia, is slowly declining,” he says.
According to Bursać, as this crisis is further examined, these contradictions will become apparent.
“People tend to ignore these things when the main concerns they have about a politician align with their views. In Vučić’s case, this is a sense of stability, the image that he is capable and all-powerful, and, of course, the economic-social component he provides. However, we can see that all of this has been going in the wrong direction in recent weeks, and this will certainly be felt by the voters of the SNS,” he estimates.
He adds that the contradictions of the foreign policy component will take some time, but he believes it will eventually come to the forefront unless the SNS does something drastic to reverse the current crisis.
Western leaders tolerate anti-Western rhetoric as long as Vučić “delivers”
In addition to government supporters in Serbia, there is another group of people who, it seems, are not bothered by the contradiction in communication – the Western officials themselves. So far, there has been no sign that the strong anti-Western rhetoric used domestically, which undoubtedly contributes to the low popularity of these countries, has been an obstacle to cooperation with the Serbian authorities.
According to Vuk Vuksanović, a senior researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, the West has tolerated Vučić’s campaign on the domestic front primarily because its leaders believed it was necessary for him to deliver things that were potentially unpopular within Serbia, such as concessions related to the Kosovo issue.
“As long as he was delivering that, they didn’t care what he said to the domestic audience. Of course, we can see how their relationship changed when Western governments showed interest in lithium, to the procurement of French Rafales, and to the fact that Belgrade is supplying ammunition to Ukraine, which has pleased Washington,” Vuksanović says for European Western Balkans.
He adds that another, much deeper and more problematic cause of this approach to anti-Western narratives in Serbia is that Western governments have not seen the Balkans as a zone of future EU members for quite some time, but rather as Europe’s periphery.
“If they were serious about enlargement and Serbia’s membership in the European Union, they would view this kind of media rhetoric and strategy in Serbia with much less tolerance. I can’t say that they are completely indifferent when they see the glorification of Russia and China, but in the current stage where the Balkans is anything but a priority for Western governments, and no one in Europe is seriously thinking about enlargement, this is the least painful strategy,” concludes Vuksanović.