Yesterday’s speech by Ursula von der Leyen in the European Parliament, where she was given the green light for the second term as the European Commission President, is seen by our interlocutors as an encouraging sign for the EU enlargement policy.
However, it is expected that von der Leyen will face no easy tasks in the next five years – not only when it comes to the internal reforms of the EU so that the new member states can be welcomed, but also regarding the strengthening the rule of law, so that the EU will be protected from the current “illiberal tendencies”.
Johanna Deimel: EU urgently needs reforms, especially a move away from the unanimity vote in some areas
Speaking about the challenges that the President of the Commission will face in the short term, Johanna Deimel, an independent German analyst for the Western Balkans and Southeast Europe, states for the EWB that the protection of democratic values will be one of the priorities, which will include resisting Hungary, the country that is holding the Presidency of the Council until January 2025.
Addressing the EP prior to Thursday’s vote, Ursula von der Leyen strongly criticised Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for her recent visits, including to Russia, which some members of the EP greeted with a long applause. She stated that Europe could not control demagogues around the world, but it could choose to protect its own democracy.
“Ursula von der Leyen has been elected President of the European Commission for the second time with considerably more votes than necessary. This is also remarkable because the European Parliament shifted significantly to the right after the 2024 election with a clear increase in MEP Eurosceptics. Her first election in 2019 was long tainted by the smell of a deal with Viktor Orbán and von der Leyen was long regarded as the EU Commission President by Orbán‘s grace. Back then, in 2019, the Hungarian Prime Minister rejoiced: “We have elected a German mother of a family, the mother of seven children, to head the Commission”. Now Orbán is being given the cold shoulder by the German mother”, Johanna Deimel says.
She believes that a major task will be to put a stop to Hungary’s illiberal machinations and blockade attempts which, in the short term, also includes the possible withdrawal of Hungary’s EU Council presidency.
“We will see how the new EU Commission – in terms of its composition and portfolios – will be put together. It will be particularly interesting to see who becomes EU Commissioner for Enlargement – after Olivér Várhelyi from Hungary”, Deimel adds.
Commenting on the messages delivered by Ursula von der Leyen regarding the necessity to invite the new member states to join the EU, Deimel underlines that in her speech on 18 July, she presented EU enlargement as a geostrategic responsibility and specifically mentioned Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, as well as the Western Balkans, which implies that the new EC should implement the adequate reforms.
“Since EU enlargement did not make a significant step forward for years now, the EU has offered the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans intended to bring the benefits of the EU Single Market to the Balkans even before membership. Von der Leyen said in her speech on 18 July that she wanted to protect democracy in the EU. Yet, if necessary, the standards of democracy and the rule of law in dealing with autocrats like the Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić are lowered when it comes to protecting the EU car industry. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is therefore in Belgrade, where the Rio Tinto project is to be realized despite all protests, also with the involvement of the EU Commission”, Johanna Deimel assesses.
Deimel thinks that, because of the frustrating standstill in EU enlargement for the countries of the Western Balkans, the EU urgently needs reforms, especially a move away from the unanimity vote in some areas in order to make it more difficult for individual EU member states to block the process.
“This will be a difficult but absolutely necessary task for the second term of office of the EU Commission President, which must be tackled immediately. Not least to ensure that the EU remains capable of acting, or rather becomes more capable of acting in view of the wars in Ukraine, the Middle East and the likely re-election of US President Donald Trump”, Deimel remarks.
Nikolaos Tzifakis: The pledge on enlargement is very encouraging, but we should see if the goals are too ambitious
Nikolas Tzifakis, a professor at the University of the Peloponnese and member of the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG), also believes that it was a good thing that Ursula von der Leyen stressed the importance of the EU enlargement in her speech.
“The first signs are very encouraging. Ursula von der Leyen claimed that EU enlargement would be one of her core priorities. There was no such pledge in her 2019 statement or, previously, in Jean-Claude Juncker’s 2014 statement to the European Parliament. Moreover, she announced that she would appoint a dedicated Commissioner for Enlargement. It constitutes a much-needed return to a successful practice followed in previous enlargement rounds”, Nikolaos Tzifakis says for European Western Balkans.
Tzifakis remarks that, however, it is still early to draw conclusions since we need to learn more about the importance of the Enlargement portfolio in the new Commission and who will get it.
“The Commission President-elect should also show how the process will become merit-based. The track record of the outgoing Commission was not satisfactory on that account. Finally, we need to hear more about how the Commission plans to approach the Union’s internal reforms. Von der Leyen argues for a Treaty change. Undoubtedly, this is the optimal solution. Nevertheless, it might be a goal too ambitious under the current circumstances”, he concludes.