The process of EU enlargement in the Western Balkans gained new momentum in 2024, with Montenegro and Albania, in particular, making further steps on their respective accession paths, as well as with the adoption of the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans.
However, the year also saw the continuation of ethnic and political tensions in the region, including the protests in Serbia and the blooming divisive rhetoric in BiH. Relations between Kosovo and Serbia did not recover following the 2023 Banjska attack.
Montenegro and Albania make progress in EU accession
According to EU officials, Montenegro and Albania have the possibility to conclude talks on membership in the bloc by 2026 and 2027, respectively. Other countries in the region are still facing political difficulties in their accession process, demonstrated in the past year.
At the Intergovernmental Conference held in late June, Montenegro became the first candidate to receive a positive Interim Benchmark Assessment Report (IBAR) for the rule of law chapters, which paved the way for the country to start closing the chapters in the accession negotiations. In December, Montenegro provisionally closed three negotiating chapters with the EU.
When it comes to the EU path of Albania, an important step was taken in October 2024, when the country opened Cluster 1, consisting of five negotiating chapters. In December 2024, Albania opened Cluster 6, which consists of two chapters of EU legislation on external relations and became the first EU candidate country that open two clusters in just two months.
Also, in late November 2024, both Montenegro and Albania became the first-ever enlargement countries to join the geographical scope of the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA).
On the other hand, Serbia failed to open Cluster 3 in 2024. Even though the European Commission reiterated the stance that the country was technically ready to do so, the EU member states failed to reach an agreement on this issue. It was stressed that the Council of the EU would revert to this issue “on the basis of substantial further progress made by Serbia”, in particular in the rule of law and normalisation of relations with Kosovo.
In late September 2024, the EU decided to decouple North Macedonia from Albania in their accession process because of Skopje’s dispute with neighbouring EU member Bulgaria over amendments to North Macedonia’s constitution. Bulgaria kept blocking the EU process of North Macedonia, insisting that the country had to adopt a change to its constitutional preamble and name Bulgarians among the state’s founding peoples.
Bosnia and Herzegovina continues to be the least prepared candidate country for EU membership according to the reform progress. In late March 2024, the EU member states agreed in principle to open EU accession talks with BiH, provided that the country fulfilled all conditions provided by the Commission. However, it was subsequently assessed by the EU that the reform dynamic in BiH stalled between April and October 2024.
Finally, Kosovo failed to gain the EU candidate status in 2024 and the likelihood of a response to its membership application, submitted in 2022, seems very distant.
The Growth Plan for the Western Balkans and five Reform Agendas
In early May 2024, the Council of the EU adopted the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, thus formally completing the procedure started in November 2023, when the plan was first proposed by the European Commission. Through this financial instrument, the region will receive assistance amounting to EUR 6 billion, with EUR 2 billion being direct payments to the budget and EUR 4 billion being favourable loans.
Photo: Government of Montenegro
In late October, the European Commission approved the Reform Agendas of Albania, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia following the EU Member States’ positive opinion. In these documents, the five Western Balkans governments commit to socio-economic and fundamental reforms they will undertake as a pre-condition for the release of funds under the Growth Plan. So far, BIH has failed to adopt the Reform Agenda.
Continued political tensions in Serbia
Serbia witnessed a rise in political and social tensions in 2024. In February 2024, the European Parliament adopted the Resolution on Serbia, calling for an independent international investigation into the irregularities of the parliamentary, provincial and municipal elections, which took place in December 2023. The investigation did not take place, though the ruling parties made a commitment to implement OSCE/ODIHR recommendations to improve the electoral conditions. Scepticism about their willingness to do so persists among the opposition and the civil society.
In July 2024, the EU and Serbia signed a Memorandum on Critical Raw Materials. The event was seen as a major step towards the realisation of a lithium mining project in western Serbia, which is still quite unpopular domestically. Mass protests against the lithium project were organised in dozens of places across Serbia, including towns and municipalities, as well as in Belgrade. The issue remains politically unresolved.
The tragedy in Novi Sad, after a canopy of the newly-reconstructed railway station collapsed unexpectedly on 1 November, and caused the tragic death of 15 people, sparked a new wave of protests in Serbia. The protests culminated in December, when tens of thousands of students, farmers and citizens gathered on 22 December in Slavija Square and surrounding streets in downtown Belgrade to demand responsibility for this tragic event, as well as sanctions for the subsequent attackers on protesting students.
The student protest started in late November, following a physical attack on the students, who were commemorating the victims of the Novi Sad tragedy on the street. These students subsequently entered a blockade of their faculty, kickstarting a wave of blockades across Serbia’s universities, leading to the largest student mobilization in Serbia since the 1990s.
In late November, the prosecution charged a total of 13 people, including former Minister of Construction Goran Vesić, for the tragedy, and the cases against them are ongoing. Part of the public, however, continues to mistrust the judiciary and stresses that there have been no charges of corruption in relation to the Novi Sad railway station reconstruction, which was completed earlier this year.
Political polarisation remains a burning issue in Albania
Despite the return to the normal functioning of Parliament in March 2024, political polarisation remains high in Albania. As a result, the Parliament’s key legislative and oversight roles are still limited.
Sali Berisha, a former Prime Minister and an opposition leader, was released from house arrest in November 2024. He awaits trial on corruption charges. The protests against his detainment intensified in autumn. The President of the Freedom Party (PL) and former President of Albania Ilir Meta, who was also arrested and charged with corruption, sent a public letter from his cell to the members of the party, asking them to start periodic peaceful protests in front of the Prosecutor’s Office.
Also, the opposition lawmakers and citizens took to the streets in Tirana in December, demanding the government be replaced by a technocratic caretaker cabinet until the May 2025 parliamentary elections.
EU and US elections: New European Commission sees enlargement as a priority, Trump’s election leaves open questions for the region
In early June 2024, voters in the 27 EU member states elected 720 lawmakers to the European Parliament for the next five years. Many of the members serving in the 2019-2024 European Parliament who have become the “familiar faces” in the Western Balkans retained their seats, while several did not get re-elected. The European People’s Party (EPP) retained the leading position in the EP following the election.
In late November, a majority of members of the European Parliament voted in favour of the second European Commission headed by Ursula von der Leyen. The mandate of the new European Commission began on 1 December, on the same day when the new President of the European Council António Costa started his term of office.
Marta Kos, the new Commissioner for Enlargement, stressed that the enlargement would remain merit-based and that some candidate countries could finish the accession process in the next five years. Similarly, Kaja Kallas, the new High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said that “enlargement is a geostrategic investment that is in the interest of the EU, and in the next five years we need clear results”.
In early November, the citizens of the United States of America voted in a presidential election which resulted in the comeback of Donald Trump to the White House. The policy towards the Western Balkans did not feature in the campaign, but some analysts claimed that his re-election could imply the “revival” of the approaches which led to the mostly unimplemented Washington Agreement on the normalisation of economic relations between Belgrade and Pristina, signed in the autumn of 2020.
Comeback of VMRO-DPMNE in North Macedonia
Parliamentary elections were held in North Macedonia on 8 May 2024. The slow pace of EU integration and corruption were the main issues during the campaign. The right-wing opposition coalition led by the nationalist VMRO-DPMNE party decisively won the election. North Macedonia’s parliament on June 23 approved a new coalition government led by Hristijan Mickoski.
The new Government pledged it would “strongly advocate devising an appropriate solution for moving the European integration process forward, without accepting dictates from the third countries”, alluding to the conditions set by Bulgaria.
Also, on 8 May 2024, the second round of the presidential election took place. Gordana Siljanovska-Dankova was inaugurated as President on 12 May. During her inaugural address, she pledged to “feminize” and “Europeanize” the country. However, she caused controversy when she referred to her country as “Macedonia”, rather than its official name of “North Macedonia”.
Local elections in BiH overshadowed by devastating floods
On 4 October 2024, a severe storm struck Bosnia and Herzegovina, triggering widespread flooding, mudslides, and landslides. The official reports state that these events have resulted in the deaths of 27 people. The flooding and landslides had a devastating impact, causing widespread damage to housing, infrastructure, and essential life services, particularly in the areas of Jablanica and Konjic.
The local elections in BiH were held on 6 October. The largest nationalist political parties mostly managed to maintain control over the majority of municipalities and cities. They gained more limited support in cities such as Banja Luka, Tuzla and Zenica, as well as Sarajevo municipalities, but their grip over small towns remains as strong as before.
Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue at standstill
The Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue, mediated by the EU, did not bring any progress in 2024. In May, Kosovo’s aspirations to join the Council of Europe were met with a negative response, and in August tensions once again rose in northern Kosovo. It happened after the operation by the Kosovo Police which resulted in the closure of the remaining Serbian institutions including municipal services, pension fund, the building of the provisional municipal authority of Kosovska Mitrovica.
On 29 November, an explosion damaged the Ibar Lepenac/Ibër-Lepenci water canal in Zubin Potok. Kosovo and Serbia blamed each other for this incident, while the EU and the USA condemned the attack and supported a full investigation.
The EU’s punitive measures against Kosovo are still in force. It was stated that the EU would “gradually lift these measures in parallel with further steps by Kosovo to de-escalate the tensions in the north”. Also, the EU keeps demanding from Kosovo to establish the Association of Serb-majority Municipality.
Visa-free liberalisation for all citizens of Kosovo
As of 1 January 2024, Kosovo passport holders are allowed to travel to the EU without a visa, for up to 90 days in any 180-day period. This, in turn, also enables EU citizens to travel to Kosovo without issuing a visa.
On 22 July 2024, the Council of the European Union adopted a regulation removing the exclusion previously applied to holders of Serbian passports in Kosovo issued by the Serbian Coordination Directorate. This ensured that the whole Western Balkan region was subjected to the same visa regime.
UN Resolution on Srebrenica and the rise of ethnic tensions
The Resolution establishing 11 July as the International Day of Reflection and Commemoration of the 1995 Genocide in Srebrenica was adopted by the UN General Assembly in late May. The vote came after a weeks-long campaign by Serbia to present the document as designating Serbs as a “genocidal people”, a claim made even though the proposed resolution did not mention either Serbs or Serbia.
As a response to the Resolution, the political leadership of Serbia initiated a campaign aimed at raising the national pride, with the wide-ranging use of the Serbian flag. The delegation of Serbia led by President Aleksandar Vučić lobbied extensively against the Resolution in the UN General Assembly.
In the aftermath, at the proposal of Speaker Andrija Mandić, the Montenegrin Parliament adopted the Resolution on Genocide in the Jasenovac, Dachau, and Mauthausen camps in late July. The Croatian Foreign Ministry immediately responded, stating that Croatia considers it unacceptable, inappropriate, and unnecessary. As a result, in December 2024, Croatia blocked the closure of the chapter on foreign policy in the EU accession process of Montenegro.
In addition, BiH continued to experience political instability and separatist rhetoric and actions in 2024. In June the so-called “All-Serb Assembly” took place in Belgrade. On this occasion, the governments of Republika Srpska and Serbia adopted the “Declaration on the Protection of National and Political Rights and the Common Future of the Serbian People”.
On 25 December the National Assembly of Republika Srpska adopted the conclusions on the “collapse of the legal order in BiH”. The conclusions were prompted by the ongoing trial of the President of RS Milorad Dodik and other officials for disrespecting the decisions of the High Representative in BiH Christian Schmidt. The Parliament demanded that the political representatives of the RS in the BIH institutions to suspend decision-making in the domain of the EU integration.
Reshuffling of Montenegrin Government and snap local elections in Podgorica
The Montenegrin Government led by Milojko Spajić was reshuffled in July 2024 to include members of the Coalition for the Future of Montenegro, close to the official Belgrade, as well as the Bosniak Party, a traditional coalition partner of the Democratic Party of Socialist.
Following the falling out between President of Montenegro Jakov Milatović and Prime Minister Milojko Spajić, both of whom were founders of the Movement “Europe Now” (PES), snap local elections were held in several towns, including the capital Podgorica. After three months of wheeling and dealing, Spajić’s PES and “Movement for Podgorica”, close to Milatović, renewed cooperation, the cessation of which led to the snap election in the first place.